Is it fair to open eSports 2013 Winter Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$4.77 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1781.85 · 0.004% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 6 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 6

$58.68 8 times out of 10: between $32.56 and $129.53

Chance to end ahead 14%

Chance to double 1.8%

Chance at the top prize 0.02%

Contents and odds

77 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Fade	0.004%	$1781.85
★ Karambit	0.004%	$994.99
★ Karambit \| Slaughter	0.004%	$983.50
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$905.73
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$765.26
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$735.40
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$724.09
★ M9 Bayonet	0.004%	$716.99
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$710.16
★ Karambit \| Stained	0.004%	$544.01
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$520.86
★ Karambit \| Night	0.004%	$508.53
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$507.26
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$488.61
★ Karambit \| Scorched	0.004%	$425.91
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$420.79
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$406.74
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained	0.004%	$393.63
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$392.28
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$383.52
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night	0.004%	$346.42
★ Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$336.05
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$321.76
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$302.54
★ Flip Knife \| Fade	0.004%	$293.10
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched	0.004%	$291.96
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$283.52
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$277.43
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$275.89
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter	0.004%	$268.84

Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 2 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Payout 71% · Profit chance 13% C

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Payout 63% · Profit chance 11% D

Glove Case Payout 62% · Profit chance 7.1% E

Gamma Case Payout 61% · Profit chance 15% E

Questions

Why is the eSports 2013 Winter Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $15.58, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 69% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For eSports 2013 Winter Case that is 12 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.

What if I get lucky?

Over 6 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.0%, the chance to double the budget is 1.8%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.