Is it fair to open Operation Wildfire Case
Top prize ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter · $201.05 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 18 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
29 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $201.05 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $199.98 |
 AK-47 | Fuel Injector | 0.32% | $160.97 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $152.03 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $140.47 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $110.67 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | 0.02% | $81.99 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $76.77 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Night | 0.02% | $72.69 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $65.08 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $55.13 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $53.79 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $53.13 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $48.17 |
 M4A4 | The Battlestar | 0.32% | $40.88 |
 Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon | 1.1% | $25.20 |
 Nova | Hyper Beast | 1.1% | $15.64 |
 AWP | Elite Build | 1.1% | $15.28 |
 FAMAS | Valence | 3.2% | $6.15 |
 MP7 | Impire | 3.2% | $4.55 |
 Five-SeveN | Triumvirate | 3.2% | $4.42 |
 Glock-18 | Royal Legion | 3.2% | $4.23 |
 MAG-7 | Praetorian | 3.2% | $2.73 |
 USP-S | Lead Conduit | 13% | $1.66 |
 MAC-10 | Lapis Gator | 13% | $1.21 |
 Dual Berettas | Cartel | 13% | $0.90 |
 Tec-9 | Jambiya | 13% | $0.88 |
 PP-Bizon | Photic Zone | 13% | $0.76 |
 SSG 08 | Necropos | 13% | $0.76 |
Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.
Ranked 11 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Operation Wildfire Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $5.29, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 57% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Operation Wildfire Case that is 30 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.
What if I get lucky?
Over 18 openings the chance to pull ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter is 0.4%, the chance to double the budget is 4.0%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.