Is it fair to open Operation Hydra Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$12.68 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze · $4400.46 · 0.01% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 3 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 3

$38.22 8 times out of 10: between $24.66 and $92.52

Chance to end ahead 8.3%

Chance to double 6.0%

Chance at the top prize 0.03%

Contents and odds

41 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze	0.01%	$4400.46
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box	0.01%	$3635.52
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor	0.01%	$1891.77
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint	0.01%	$1854.74
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono	0.01%	$1757.44
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web	0.01%	$1305.40
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave	0.01%	$1052.59
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid	0.01%	$993.98
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint	0.01%	$942.06
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation	0.01%	$822.65
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave	0.01%	$648.31
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather	0.01%	$561.95
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter	0.01%	$465.01
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom!	0.01%	$444.04
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse	0.01%	$433.85
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy	0.01%	$416.57
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback	0.01%	$403.08
★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands	0.01%	$361.54
AWP \| Oni Taiji	0.32%	$360.25
★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT	0.01%	$322.60
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT	0.01%	$276.53
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast	0.32%	$272.79
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred	0.01%	$216.63
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed	0.01%	$200.40
M4A4 \| Hellfire	1.1%	$191.03
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite	0.01%	$178.35
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla	0.01%	$171.83
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush	1.1%	$73.15
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike	1.1%	$60.12
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01	3.2%	$42.52

Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 9 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

CS:GO Weapon Case 2 Payout 60% · Profit chance 9.8% E

Prisma Case Payout 58% · Profit chance 11% E

eSports 2014 Summer Case Payout 58% · Profit chance 6.0% D

Gamma 2 Case Payout 58% · Profit chance 14% E

Operation Wildfire Case Payout 57% · Profit chance 10% D

Chroma 2 Case Payout 56% · Profit chance 13% E

Questions

Why is the Operation Hydra Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $30.49, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 58% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Operation Hydra Case that is 4 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.

What if I get lucky?

Over 3 openings the chance to pull ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze is 0.0%, the chance to double the budget is 6.0%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.