Is it fair to open Winter Offensive Weapon Case
Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1783.11 · 0.004% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 8 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
78 items
Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.
Ranked 18 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Winter Offensive Weapon Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $11.63, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 52% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Winter Offensive Weapon Case that is 12 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.
What if I get lucky?
Over 8 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.0%, the chance to double the budget is 1.8%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.