Is it fair to open Horizon Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$1.94 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Talon Knife | Fade · $766.53 · 0.005% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 25 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 25

$32.90 8 times out of 10: between $20.72 and $92.35

Chance to end ahead 7.7%

Chance to double 2.9%

Chance at the top prize 0.12%

Contents and odds

69 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Talon Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$766.53
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$563.63
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$414.71
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$401.98
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$380.41
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$372.37
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$371.58
★ Talon Knife	0.005%	$306.00
★ Talon Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$287.22
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$248.59
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$237.44
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$236.11
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$220.33
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$209.37
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$209.05
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$204.00
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$198.69
★ Stiletto Knife	0.005%	$195.09
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$191.56
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$183.93
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$171.65
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$163.02
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$155.77
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$143.92
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$141.18
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$131.92
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$126.10
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$121.35
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$119.94
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$113.70

Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 20 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Spectrum 2 Case Payout 52% · Profit chance 15% E

Winter Offensive Weapon Case Payout 52% · Profit chance 8.0% E

Prisma 2 Case Payout 51% · Profit chance 7.8% E

Revolver Case Payout 51% · Profit chance 15% E

Falchion Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 6.3% E

Operation Broken Fang Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 6.7% F

Questions

Why is the Horizon Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $3.95, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 51% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Horizon Case that is 37 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.

What if I get lucky?

Over 25 openings the chance to pull ★ Talon Knife | Fade is 0.1%, the chance to double the budget is 2.9%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.