Is it fair to open Operation Broken Fang Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$4.13 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts · $613.04 · 0.01% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 12 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 12

$29.73 8 times out of 10: between $18.83 and $82.72

Chance to end ahead 6.7%

Chance to double 4.4%

Chance at the top prize 0.13%

Contents and odds

41 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts	0.01%	$613.04
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot	0.01%	$412.88
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard	0.01%	$301.74
M4A1-S \| Printstream	0.32%	$231.47
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh	0.01%	$194.41
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike	0.01%	$178.90
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade	0.01%	$169.37
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie	0.01%	$147.79
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent	0.01%	$143.46
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game	0.01%	$140.85
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION!	0.01%	$128.57
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure	0.01%	$123.28
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out	0.01%	$117.44
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander	0.01%	$112.84
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line	0.01%	$88.03
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade	0.01%	$79.20
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red	0.01%	$70.45
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar	0.01%	$57.66
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged	0.01%	$56.30
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor	0.01%	$53.06
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded	0.01%	$49.78
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe	0.01%	$46.37
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point	0.01%	$45.98
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company	0.01%	$44.95
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh	0.01%	$43.97
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir	0.32%	$41.64
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale	1.1%	$39.08
USP-S \| Monster Mashup	1.1%	$30.58
M4A4 \| Cyber Security	1.1%	$25.52
AWP \| Exoskeleton	3.2%	$6.94

Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 23 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Horizon Case Payout 51% · Profit chance 7.7% E

Revolver Case Payout 51% · Profit chance 15% E

Falchion Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 6.3% E

Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 11% F

Shattered Web Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 7.2% E

Dreams & Nightmares Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 5.7% F

Questions

Why is the Operation Broken Fang Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $8.08, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 49% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Operation Broken Fang Case that is 18 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.

What if I get lucky?

Over 12 openings the chance to pull ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts is 0.1%, the chance to double the budget is 4.4%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.