Is it fair to open Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$3.10 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1783.11 · 0.004% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 16 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 16

$25.03 8 times out of 10: between $15.60 and $105.21

Chance to end ahead 11%

Chance to double 2.4%

Chance at the top prize 0.06%

Contents and odds

78 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Fade	0.004%	$1783.11
★ Karambit	0.004%	$994.99
★ Karambit \| Slaughter	0.004%	$976.87
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$905.73
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$761.95
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$735.74
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$724.09
★ M9 Bayonet	0.004%	$720.76
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$710.22
★ Karambit \| Stained	0.004%	$542.15
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$520.64
★ Karambit \| Night	0.004%	$508.53
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$507.22
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$491.46
★ Karambit \| Scorched	0.004%	$425.70
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$420.79
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$406.74
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained	0.004%	$392.79
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$392.43
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$382.27
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night	0.004%	$346.48
★ Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$336.79
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$321.34
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$302.54
★ Flip Knife \| Fade	0.004%	$293.10
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched	0.004%	$292.35
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$284.23
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$277.43
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$276.22
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter	0.004%	$268.86

Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 24 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Revolver Case Payout 51% · Profit chance 15% E

Falchion Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 6.3% E

Operation Broken Fang Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 6.7% F

Dreams & Nightmares Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 5.7% F

Shattered Web Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 7.3% E

Huntsman Weapon Case Payout 47% · Profit chance 6.4% F

Questions

Why is the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $6.02, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 48% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Operation Phoenix Weapon Case that is 20 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.

What if I get lucky?

Over 16 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.1%, the chance to double the budget is 2.4%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.