Is it fair to open Falchion Case
Top prize ★ Falchion Knife | Fade · $208.63 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 25 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
29 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Falchion Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $208.63 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $190.27 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $159.03 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $130.00 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $126.67 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | 0.02% | $105.70 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $78.74 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $75.37 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Night | 0.02% | $74.20 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $63.54 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $62.46 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $59.80 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $55.91 |
 AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge | 0.32% | $45.04 |
 AWP | Hyper Beast | 0.32% | $41.95 |
 MP7 | Nemesis | 1.1% | $13.48 |
 CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket | 1.1% | $5.68 |
 SG 553 | Cyrex | 1.1% | $5.47 |
 M4A4 | Evil Daimyo | 3.2% | $5.32 |
 MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart | 3.2% | $2.55 |
 FAMAS | Neural Net | 3.2% | $2.33 |
 Galil AR | Rocket Pop | 13% | $1.67 |
 P2000 | Handgun | 3.2% | $1.49 |
 Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner | 13% | $1.34 |
 USP-S | Torque | 13% | $1.15 |
 Negev | Loudmouth | 3.2% | $1.04 |
 UMP-45 | Riot | 13% | $0.52 |
 Nova | Ranger | 13% | $0.49 |
 P90 | Elite Build | 13% | $0.45 |
Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.
Ranked 22 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Falchion Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $4.00, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 49% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Falchion Case that is 40 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.
What if I get lucky?
Over 25 openings the chance to pull ★ Falchion Knife | Fade is 0.5%, the chance to double the budget is 1.5%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.