Is it fair to open Huntsman Weapon Case
Top prize AK-47 | Vulcan · $238.79 · 0.32% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 9 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
28 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 AK-47 | Vulcan | 0.32% | $238.79 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $221.41 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $218.08 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $167.68 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $139.32 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $135.47 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | 0.02% | $121.00 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $92.16 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Night | 0.02% | $92.05 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $70.41 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $67.61 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $58.52 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $58.03 |
 ★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $55.26 |
 USP-S | Caiman | 1.1% | $43.20 |
 M4A4 | Desert-Strike | 0.32% | $35.17 |
 M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy | 1.1% | $34.12 |
 SCAR-20 | Cyrex | 1.1% | $28.21 |
 MAC-10 | Tatter | 4.0% | $5.98 |
 XM1014 | Heaven Guard | 4.0% | $5.87 |
 AUG | Torque | 4.0% | $5.56 |
 PP-Bizon | Antique | 4.0% | $5.53 |
 Tec-9 | Isaac | 13% | $3.99 |
 Galil AR | Kami | 13% | $2.43 |
 P2000 | Pulse | 13% | $2.08 |
 CZ75-Auto | Twist | 13% | $1.25 |
 SSG 08 | Slashed | 13% | $1.18 |
 P90 | Module | 13% | $1.14 |
Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.
Ranked 27 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Huntsman Weapon Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $10.18, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 47% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Huntsman Weapon Case that is 13 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.
What if I get lucky?
Over 9 openings the chance to pull AK-47 | Vulcan is 2.8%, the chance to double the budget is 3.6%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.