Is it fair to open Operation Breakout Weapon Case
Top prize ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade · $2150.62 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 10 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
27 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $2150.62 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $1258.75 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | 0.02% | $1209.61 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $775.72 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $723.25 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $722.59 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $576.70 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Night | 0.02% | $527.22 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $457.06 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $446.02 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $428.52 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $426.20 |
 ★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $417.28 |
 P90 | Asiimov | 0.32% | $177.33 |
 M4A1-S | Cyrex | 0.32% | $176.38 |
 Glock-18 | Water Elemental | 1.1% | $23.27 |
 Desert Eagle | Conspiracy | 1.1% | $20.53 |
 Five-SeveN | Fowl Play | 1.1% | $19.87 |
 P250 | Supernova | 4.0% | $2.46 |
 Nova | Koi | 4.0% | $2.38 |
 PP-Bizon | Osiris | 4.0% | $2.30 |
 CZ75-Auto | Tigris | 4.0% | $2.28 |
 SSG 08 | Abyss | 16% | $0.72 |
 P2000 | Ivory | 16% | $0.58 |
 MP7 | Urban Hazard | 16% | $0.57 |
 UMP-45 | Labyrinth | 16% | $0.42 |
 Negev | Desert-Strike | 16% | $0.37 |
Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.
Ranked 28 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Operation Breakout Weapon Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $9.91, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 47% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Operation Breakout Weapon Case that is 11 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.
What if I get lucky?
Over 10 openings the chance to pull ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade is 0.2%, the chance to double the budget is 2.9%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.