Is it fair to open Gallery Case
Top prize ★ Kukri Knife | Fade · $162.46 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 31 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
30 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Kukri Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $162.46 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $120.98 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $94.00 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | 0.02% | $89.79 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $85.17 |
 M4A1-S | Vaporwave | 0.32% | $76.18 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $75.44 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $59.59 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe | 0.02% | $47.67 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $47.32 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $45.12 |
 Glock-18 | Gold Toof | 0.32% | $43.18 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $42.13 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $41.91 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $40.22 |
 AK-47 | The Outsiders | 1.1% | $10.84 |
 P250 | Epicenter | 1.1% | $6.88 |
 UMP-45 | Neo-Noir | 1.1% | $6.29 |
 M4A4 | Turbine | 3.2% | $2.70 |
 SSG 08 | Rapid Transit | 3.2% | $2.56 |
 MAC-10 | Saibā Oni | 3.2% | $1.95 |
 Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike | 3.2% | $1.78 |
 P90 | Randy Rush | 3.2% | $1.02 |
 R8 Revolver | Tango | 11% | $0.58 |
 Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti | 11% | $0.47 |
 USP-S | 27 | 11% | $0.45 |
 AUG | Luxe Trim | 11% | $0.38 |
 M249 | Hypnosis | 11% | $0.33 |
 SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer | 11% | $0.33 |
 MP5-SD | Statics | 11% | $0.26 |
Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.
Ranked 29 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Gallery Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $3.15, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 47% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Gallery Case that is 46 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.
What if I get lucky?
Over 31 openings the chance to pull ★ Kukri Knife | Fade is 0.6%, the chance to double the budget is 0.4%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.