Is it fair to open CS20 Case
Top prize ★ Classic Knife | Fade · $273.40 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 29 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
30 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Classic Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $273.40 |
 ★ Classic Knife | 0.02% | $176.83 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $174.12 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $157.46 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $138.76 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $112.16 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe | 0.02% | $100.43 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $94.36 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $84.05 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $80.61 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $66.85 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $64.59 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $63.54 |
 AWP | Wildfire | 0.32% | $58.30 |
 FAMAS | Commemoration | 0.32% | $37.52 |
 MP9 | Hydra | 1.1% | $8.31 |
 AUG | Death by Puppy | 1.1% | $5.85 |
 P90 | Nostalgia | 1.1% | $5.43 |
 P250 | Inferno | 3.2% | $1.76 |
 Five-SeveN | Buddy | 3.2% | $1.68 |
 MP5-SD | Agent | 3.2% | $1.01 |
 UMP-45 | Plastique | 3.2% | $0.96 |
 M249 | Aztec | 3.2% | $0.91 |
 Tec-9 | Flash Out | 11% | $0.76 |
 Glock-18 | Sacrifice | 11% | $0.64 |
 MAG-7 | Popdog | 11% | $0.50 |
 FAMAS | Decommissioned | 11% | $0.48 |
 Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 | 11% | $0.45 |
 MAC-10 | Classic Crate | 11% | $0.39 |
 SCAR-20 | Assault | 11% | $0.35 |
Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.
Ranked 32 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the CS20 Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $3.34, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 43% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For CS20 Case that is 40 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.
What if I get lucky?
Over 29 openings the chance to pull ★ Classic Knife | Fade is 0.6%, the chance to double the budget is 1.7%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.