Is it fair to open Recoil Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$1.78 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts · $611.60 · 0.01% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 36 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 36

$15.57 8 times out of 10: between $7.52 and $66.31

Chance to end ahead 6.5%

Chance to double 1.9%

Chance at the top prize 0.39%

Contents and odds

41 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts	0.01%	$611.60
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot	0.01%	$412.88
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard	0.01%	$301.86
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh	0.01%	$192.84
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike	0.01%	$179.93
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade	0.01%	$169.37
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie	0.01%	$147.70
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent	0.01%	$143.33
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game	0.01%	$140.23
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION!	0.01%	$128.57
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure	0.01%	$123.29
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out	0.01%	$118.18
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander	0.01%	$112.69
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line	0.01%	$88.10
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade	0.01%	$78.77
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red	0.01%	$70.29
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar	0.01%	$57.61
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged	0.01%	$56.59
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor	0.01%	$53.05
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded	0.01%	$49.98
USP-S \| Printstream	0.32%	$47.69
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point	0.01%	$46.08
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company	0.01%	$44.95
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe	0.01%	$44.57
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh	0.01%	$43.97
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration	0.32%	$34.85
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled	1.1%	$6.03
P250 \| Visions	1.1%	$4.28
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love	1.1%	$4.22
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora	3.2%	$0.64

Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 35 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

CS20 Case Payout 43% · Profit chance 8.5% F

Fever Case Payout 42% · Profit chance 8.9% F

Danger Zone Case Payout 42% · Profit chance 7.1% F

Clutch Case Payout 34% · Profit chance 3.7% F

CS:GO Weapon Case Payout 32% · Profit chance 0.0% E

Revolution Case Payout 32% · Profit chance 5.4% F

Questions

Why is the Recoil Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $2.75, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 35% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Recoil Case that is 42 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.

What if I get lucky?

Over 36 openings the chance to pull ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts is 0.4%, the chance to double the budget is 1.9%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.