Is it fair to open Revolution Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$1.83 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Sport Gloves | Vice · $563.15 · 0.01% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 37 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 37

$13.57 8 times out of 10: between $6.54 and $59.47

Chance to end ahead 5.4%

Chance to double 2.9%

Chance at the top prize 0.40%

Contents and odds

41 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice	0.01%	$563.15
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious	0.01%	$337.62
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega	0.01%	$223.18
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls	0.01%	$222.22
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade	0.01%	$222.18
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake	0.01%	$194.31
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid	0.01%	$165.87
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web	0.01%	$151.03
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon	0.01%	$112.45
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul	0.01%	$105.62
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint	0.01%	$101.63
★ Moto Gloves \| POW!	0.01%	$89.07
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph	0.01%	$83.42
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle	0.01%	$68.63
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened	0.01%	$61.59
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake	0.01%	$51.17
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape	0.01%	$50.00
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot	0.01%	$47.76
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal	0.01%	$45.13
M4A4 \| Temukau	0.32%	$40.30
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport	0.01%	$38.91
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald	0.01%	$35.30
AK-47 \| Head Shot	0.32%	$33.51
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green	0.01%	$31.54
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler	0.01%	$29.53
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove	0.01%	$28.71
AWP \| Duality	1.1%	$4.38
P2000 \| Wicked Sick	1.1%	$3.85
UMP-45 \| Wild Child	1.1%	$3.82
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S	3.2%	$0.73

Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 38 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Recoil Case Payout 35% · Profit chance 6.5% F

Clutch Case Payout 34% · Profit chance 3.7% F

CS:GO Weapon Case Payout 32% · Profit chance 0.0% E

Fracture Case Payout 31% · Profit chance 5.1% F

Operation Bravo Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.8% F

Kilowatt Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.7% F

Questions

Why is the Revolution Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $2.70, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 32% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Revolution Case that is 42 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.

What if I get lucky?

Over 37 openings the chance to pull ★ Sport Gloves | Vice is 0.4%, the chance to double the budget is 2.9%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.