Is it fair to open Fracture Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$2.03 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade · $494.98 · 0.005% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 34 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 34

$13.53 8 times out of 10: between $6.86 and $58.70

Chance to end ahead 5.1%

Chance to double 1.5%

Chance at the top prize 0.17%

Contents and odds

69 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$494.98
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$392.15
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$283.72
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$277.93
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$252.12
★ Skeleton Knife	0.005%	$226.98
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$222.98
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$218.39
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$180.10
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$160.07
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$157.54
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$141.36
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$140.50
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$139.27
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$132.28
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$129.09
★ Survival Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$128.02
★ Nomad Knife	0.005%	$126.09
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$121.10
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$116.31
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$115.76
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$115.29
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$113.30
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$112.18
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$102.78
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$97.41
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$93.26
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$92.43
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$88.61
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$88.36

Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 39 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Clutch Case Payout 34% · Profit chance 3.7% F

CS:GO Weapon Case Payout 32% · Profit chance 0.0% E

Revolution Case Payout 32% · Profit chance 5.4% F

Operation Bravo Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.8% F

Kilowatt Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.7% F

eSports 2013 Case Payout 29% · Profit chance 4.5% F

Questions

Why is the Fracture Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $2.92, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 31% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Fracture Case that is 38 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.

What if I get lucky?

Over 34 openings the chance to pull ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade is 0.2%, the chance to double the budget is 1.5%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.