Is it fair to open Kilowatt Case
Top prize ★ Kukri Knife | Fade · $162.46 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 38 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
30 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Kukri Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $162.46 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $120.98 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $94.00 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | 0.02% | $89.72 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $85.25 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $75.44 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $59.59 |
 AK-47 | Inheritance | 0.32% | $49.57 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe | 0.02% | $47.67 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $47.32 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $45.17 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $41.97 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $41.91 |
 ★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $40.20 |
 AWP | Chrome Cannon | 0.32% | $28.45 |
 M4A1-S | Black Lotus | 1.1% | $5.88 |
 USP-S | Jawbreaker | 1.1% | $4.70 |
 Zeus x27 | Olympus | 1.1% | $4.06 |
 Glock-18 | Block-18 | 3.2% | $0.74 |
 M4A4 | Etch Lord | 3.2% | $0.63 |
 MP7 | Just Smile | 3.2% | $0.58 |
 Five-SeveN | Hybrid | 3.2% | $0.55 |
 Sawed-Off | Analog Input | 3.2% | $0.53 |
 Tec-9 | Slag | 11% | $0.11 |
 Dual Berettas | Hideout | 11% | $0.10 |
 MAC-10 | Light Box | 11% | $0.10 |
 SSG 08 | Dezastre | 11% | $0.10 |
 UMP-45 | Motorized | 11% | $0.10 |
 XM1014 | Irezumi | 11% | $0.10 |
 Nova | Dark Sigil | 11% | $0.09 |
Everything is worked out at today’s market prices and the odds we could read. It is arithmetic, not a forecast or advice: someone gets a knife on the first try, but on average this is how it goes.
Ranked 41 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Kilowatt Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $2.62, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 30% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The way cases are really opened: sell the drop, open again while you can afford a case. For Kilowatt Case that is 45 openings on average — then the balance is below the opening price. Everyone gets there: a payout below 100% works like gravity.
What if I get lucky?
Over 38 openings the chance to pull ★ Kukri Knife | Fade is 0.8%, the chance to double the budget is 0.4%. Both numbers are honest, and both are small.