开 Shadow Case 公平吗

游戏内武器箱，Valve 官方概率

−$1.90 每次开箱平均亏损

头奖 ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade · $132.57 · 每次开箱 0.02% 的概率

$100 会变成什么样

场景：用 $100 的全部预算开 25 次箱子，再把所有掉落按市场价卖掉。结果如下：

够开多少次 25

$38.26 十次里有八次：$23.04 到 $111.09

盈利概率 15%

翻倍概率 0.50%

开出头奖的概率 0.50%

29 件物品

物品	概率	市场价格
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade	0.02%	$132.57
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter	0.02%	$94.49
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened	0.02%	$84.81
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed	0.32%	$83.72
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web	0.02%	$71.21
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil	0.32%	$70.55
★ Shadow Daggers	0.02%	$59.35
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel	0.02%	$59.16
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained	0.02%	$55.33
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night	0.02%	$49.36
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched	0.02%	$45.00
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked	0.02%	$44.33
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT	0.02%	$40.49
★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest	0.02%	$39.38
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh	0.02%	$38.83
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty	1.1%	$20.47
SSG 08 \| Big Iron	1.1%	$14.05
G3SG1 \| Flux	1.1%	$9.30
Galil AR \| Stone Cold	4.0%	$3.87
P250 \| Wingshot	4.0%	$1.99
MP7 \| Special Delivery	4.0%	$1.92
M249 \| Nebula Crusader	4.0%	$1.62
FAMAS \| Survivor Z	11%	$1.10
Glock-18 \| Wraiths	11%	$1.05
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons	11%	$0.58
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core	11%	$0.58
MAC-10 \| Rangeen	11%	$0.52
SCAR-20 \| Green Marine	11%	$0.36
XM1014 \| Scumbria	11%	$0.32