Return from opening Shadow Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$1.89 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade · $133.26 · 0.02% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 25 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 25

$38.34 8 times out of 10: between $23.10 and $111.18

Chance to end ahead 15%

Chance to double 0.50%

Chance at the top prize 0.50%

Contents and odds

29 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade	0.02%	$133.26
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter	0.02%	$94.55
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened	0.02%	$84.51
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed	0.32%	$83.74
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web	0.02%	$71.22
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil	0.32%	$70.46
★ Shadow Daggers	0.02%	$59.35
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel	0.02%	$59.27
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained	0.02%	$55.33
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night	0.02%	$49.36
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched	0.02%	$44.98
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked	0.02%	$44.56
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT	0.02%	$40.51
★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest	0.02%	$39.38
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh	0.02%	$38.83
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty	1.1%	$20.47
SSG 08 \| Big Iron	1.1%	$14.09
G3SG1 \| Flux	1.1%	$9.28
Galil AR \| Stone Cold	4.0%	$3.87
P250 \| Wingshot	4.0%	$1.99
MP7 \| Special Delivery	4.0%	$1.92
M249 \| Nebula Crusader	4.0%	$1.62
FAMAS \| Survivor Z	11%	$1.09
Glock-18 \| Wraiths	11%	$1.06
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons	11%	$0.58
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core	11%	$0.58
MAC-10 \| Rangeen	11%	$0.53
SCAR-20 \| Green Marine	11%	$0.36
XM1014 \| Scumbria	11%	$0.33

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 19 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Operation Hydra Case Payout 55% · Profit chance 7.8% E

Chroma Case Payout 54% · Profit chance 11% E

eSports 2014 Summer Case Payout 53% · Profit chance 5.6% D

Operation Broken Fang Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 6.9% F

Revolver Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 12% F

Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 11% F

Questions

Why is the Shadow Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $3.91, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 52% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Shadow Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 40 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 25 openings the chance to pull ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade is 0.5%, and the chance to double the budget is 0.5%.