What happened to prices when cases left the rotation
Once a case leaves the active drop pool, players stop getting new copies and market supply starts to shrink. We pulled the Steam sales history to show what the price actually did the previous times.
Case by case
68The price on the event date is the median of Steam sales in a ±3 day window. We then compare it with the price 30, 90, 180 and 365 days later. A dash means the horizon has not passed yet or there were no sales in that period.
| Case | Event | Price on date | 30 days | 90 days | 180 days | 365 days | Peak within a year | After the event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Recoil Case | Removed from drops Mar 12, 2026 | $0.44 | +34.1% | +12.5% | −18.2% | — | +50.0% | |
 Snakebite Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $0.75 | +0.7% | +2.0% | −2.7% | — | +22.1% | |
 Fracture Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $0.57 | +10.5% | +28.1% | +36.0% | — | +57.9% | |
 Prisma 2 Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $1.58 | +11.7% | +12.7% | +22.8% | — | +53.2% | |
 CS20 Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $1.25 | +24.4% | +19.2% | +34.8% | — | +53.6% | |
 Prisma Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $1.58 | +6.9% | +10.4% | +25.6% | — | +47.6% | |
 Danger Zone Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $1.52 | +14.5% | +22.4% | +28.4% | — | +53.1% | |
 Horizon Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $1.79 | +9.2% | +13.2% | +48.5% | — | +49.0% | |
 Clutch Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $0.90 | +6.1% | +3.9% | +0.6% | — | +28.5% | |
 Spectrum 2 Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $3.87 | −0.6% | −1.2% | +6.1% | — | +16.9% | |
 Operation Hydra Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $44.21 | −7.5% | +7.3% | +6.8% | — | +27.4% | |
 Spectrum Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $4.49 | +5.1% | +3.0% | +15.1% | — | +24.7% | |
 Glove Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $27.73 | −26.7% | −36.7% | −26.0% | — | +1.6% | |
 Gamma 2 Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $5.00 | −11.7% | −16.8% | −14.6% | — | +17.0% | |
 Gamma Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $5.46 | −17.0% | −21.1% | −20.0% | — | +18.9% | |
 Chroma 3 Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $4.36 | −1.9% | −1.5% | +3.7% | — | +16.5% | |
 Operation Wildfire Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $3.62 | +13.3% | +59.3% | +28.5% | — | +64.0% | |
 Revolver Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $3.50 | +1.1% | −0.4% | +10.0% | — | +29.4% | |
 Shadow Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $1.83 | +6.0% | +29.2% | +32.2% | — | +56.3% | |
 Falchion Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $1.64 | +46.6% | +52.1% | +33.8% | — | +63.4% | |
 Chroma 2 Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $4.74 | −2.5% | +7.2% | +7.8% | — | +29.0% | |
 Chroma Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $5.45 | +3.8% | +10.6% | +17.1% | — | +39.3% | |
 Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $4.90 | +11.7% | +48.5% | +60.4% | — | +66.4% | |
 Operation Breakout Weapon Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $10.12 | +4.0% | +8.2% | +5.2% | — | +13.8% | |
 Community Sticker Capsule 1 | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $2.13 | +53.1% | +47.4% | +55.4% | — | +74.2% | |
 Huntsman Weapon Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $8.82 | +14.6% | +52.5% | +30.0% | — | +60.7% | |
 Sticker Capsule 2 | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $11.94 | +10.6% | +15.9% | +15.8% | — | +32.4% | |
 Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $4.70 | +6.9% | +11.7% | +13.6% | — | +23.4% | |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $9.75 | +34.0% | +123.3% | +76.4% | — | +128.9% | |
 Sticker Capsule | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $0.69 | +18.2% | +21.2% | +20.4% | — | +62.0% | |
 Winter Offensive Weapon Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $7.82 | +22.6% | +96.4% | +77.7% | — | +142.8% | |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $13.20 | +26.1% | +108.0% | +119.5% | — | +152.4% | |
 Operation Bravo Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $44.80 | +18.7% | +72.9% | +79.2% | — | +101.1% | |
 CS:GO Weapon Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2025 | $89.45 | +30.0% | +120.9% | +91.7% | — | +152.4% | |
 Gallery Case | Removed from drops Oct 2, 2025 | $1.23 | +16.2% | +14.2% | +2.0% | — | +39.3% | |
| Fracture Case | Moved to rare drops Sep 17, 2025 | $0.69 | −2.2% | −21.0% | +6.5% | −11.6% | +30.4% | |
| Snakebite Case | Moved to rare drops Feb 7, 2024 | $0.21 | −4.8% | +9.5% | −21.4% | +61.9% | +61.9% | |
| Clutch Case | Moved to rare drops Feb 10, 2023 | $0.36 | +50.0% | +98.6% | +80.6% | +1.4% | +302.8% | |
| Prisma 2 Case | Moved to rare drops Jul 1, 2022 | $0.06 | +100.0% | +225.0% | +133.3% | +875.0% | +1683.3% | |
| Danger Zone Case | Moved to rare drops Jan 18, 2022 | $0.04 | +25.0% | +137.5% | +150.0% | +325.0% | +325.0% | |
| CS20 Case | Moved to rare drops Jun 3, 2021 | $0.12 | +52.2% | +21.7% | −13.0% | +39.1% | +143.5% | |
| Horizon Case | Moved to rare drops Jun 3, 2021 | $0.08 | +5.9% | +5.9% | −17.6% | +76.5% | +88.2% | |
| Spectrum 2 Case | Moved to rare drops Jun 3, 2021 | $0.28 | +9.1% | +16.4% | −23.6% | +127.3% | +132.7% | |
| Gamma 2 Case | Moved to rare drops Jun 3, 2021 | $0.30 | +16.7% | +41.7% | −13.3% | +173.3% | +193.3% | |
| Chroma 3 Case | Moved to rare drops Jun 3, 2021 | $0.12 | +16.7% | +16.7% | +4.2% | +379.2% | +408.3% | |
| Revolver Case | Moved to rare drops Jun 3, 2021 | $0.08 | +20.0% | +33.3% | +20.0% | +206.7% | +220.0% | |
| Prisma Case | Moved to rare drops May 3, 2021 | $0.04 | +62.5% | +50.0% | −25.0% | +100.0% | +150.0% | |
| Spectrum Case | Moved to rare drops Mar 13, 2019 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Glove Case | Moved to rare drops Dec 6, 2018 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Gamma Case | Moved to rare drops Feb 15, 2018 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Operation Hydra Case | Moved to rare drops Nov 13, 2017 | $0.21 | +242.9% | +802.4% | +881.0% | +1321.4% | +1671.4% | |
| Operation Wildfire Case | Moved to rare drops Sep 14, 2017 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Chroma 2 Case | Moved to rare drops Mar 15, 2017 | $0.01 | −100.0% | −100.0% | −100.0% | −50.0% | 0.0% | |
| Shadow Case | Moved to rare drops Aug 18, 2016 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +100.0% | +100.0% | +200.0% | |
| Falchion Case | Moved to rare drops Jun 15, 2016 | $0.03 | −33.3% | −66.7% | −33.3% | −33.3% | 0.0% | |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | Moved to rare drops Apr 20, 2016 | $0.03 | +33.3% | −33.3% | −66.7% | −66.7% | +133.3% | |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | Moved to rare drops Dec 8, 2015 | $0.04 | +42.9% | +42.9% | +128.6% | +14.3% | +300.0% | |
| Chroma Case | Moved to rare drops Sep 17, 2015 | $0.01 | +200.0% | +200.0% | +900.0% | +300.0% | +900.0% | |
 eSports 2014 Summer Case | Removed from drops Sep 17, 2015 | $0.09 | +44.4% | +55.6% | +188.9% | +100.0% | +366.7% | |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | Moved to rare drops Apr 15, 2015 | $0.03 | +183.3% | +450.0% | +1083.3% | +2733.3% | +3000.0% | |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | Moved to rare drops Apr 15, 2015 | $0.10 | −20.0% | −20.0% | +45.0% | +235.0% | +320.0% | |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | Moved to rare drops Mar 31, 2015 | $0.03 | +20.0% | +60.0% | +220.0% | +500.0% | +700.0% | |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | Moved to rare drops Oct 1, 2014 | $0.11 | +90.9% | +390.9% | +504.5% | +627.3% | +681.8% | |
 eSports 2013 Winter Case | Removed from drops Jul 10, 2014 | $0.03 | +100.0% | +200.0% | +283.3% | +200.0% | +500.0% | |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | Moved to rare drops Feb 12, 2014 | $0.03 | +33.3% | +166.7% | +316.7% | +616.7% | +1000.0% | |
| Operation Bravo Case | Moved to rare drops Feb 5, 2014 | $0.14 | +496.4% | +996.4% | +2028.6% | +2203.6% | +3307.1% | |
 eSports 2013 Case | Removed from drops Dec 18, 2013 | $0.03 | +66.7% | +716.7% | +1983.3% | +4150.0% | +5433.3% | |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | Moved to rare drops Nov 28, 2013 | $0.05 | +100.0% | +1050.0% | +1650.0% | +5590.0% | +7300.0% |
Currently in the active drop pool
5If a case leaves the rotation, the median of past exits (+21.5% over 90 days) maps to this price:
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal $0.36 → $0.44 
Sealed Genesis Terminal $0.05 → $0.06 
This is not a forecast: we simply apply the median of past exits to the current price. Every exit from the rotation played out differently.
FAQ
Why does the price rise when a case leaves the drop pool?
While a case is in the active drop pool, players get it for free every week and the new copies keep pushing the price down. Once it leaves the rotation the inflow stops: cases keep getting opened, none are created, and supply can only shrink.
What is the difference between "moved to rare drops" and "removed from drops"?
In the rare drop pool a case still drops, but with a very small chance, so the inflow almost stops. "Removed from drops" means it no longer drops at all and can only be bought on the market.
Can this table predict a price?
No. The median shows the typical behaviour, but the spread is huge: some cases doubled within a month, others sat flat for a year. Operations, majors and trading rule changes matter too — those are the markers on the charts.
Where do the rotation dates come from?
From the Steam drop pool guide (its discontinued and Recent Changes sections) and from our own log: on every pool refresh we diff the lists and record what moved.
Prices come from Steam Community Market sales history; rotation dates come from the drop pool guide and our own tracking. Weekly drop pool →