Return from opening CS:GO Weapon Case 3

In-game case, Valve odds

−$3.10 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1 710.89 · 0.004% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 7 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 7

$66.15 8 times out of 10: between $45.67 and $112.63

Chance to end ahead 15%

Chance to double 1.1%

Chance at the top prize 0.03%

Contents and odds

77 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Fade	0.004%	$1 710.89
★ Karambit \| Slaughter	0.004%	$966.57
★ Karambit	0.004%	$962.00
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$885.52
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$736.66
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$713.64
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$706.99
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$682.48
★ M9 Bayonet	0.004%	$678.99
★ Karambit \| Stained	0.004%	$528.57
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$506.03
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$487.38
★ Karambit \| Night	0.004%	$481.01
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$469.60
★ Karambit \| Scorched	0.004%	$418.88
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$408.43
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$397.85
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$379.40
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$374.12
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained	0.004%	$373.86
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night	0.004%	$335.17
★ Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$330.93
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$315.40
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$300.57
★ Flip Knife \| Fade	0.004%	$287.12
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched	0.004%	$282.93
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$276.17
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$274.10
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$273.01
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter	0.004%	$262.01

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 2 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Glove Case Payout 113% · Profit chance 16% A

Chroma 2 Case Payout 72% · Profit chance 17% D

Gamma Case Payout 71% · Profit chance 18% D

Chroma 3 Case Payout 67% · Profit chance 17% E

Questions

Why is the CS:GO Weapon Case 3 payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $12.79, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 76% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For CS:GO Weapon Case 3, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 20 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 7 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.0%, and the chance to double the budget is 1.1%.