Return from opening eSports 2013 Winter Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$4.92 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1 702.22 · 0.004% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 6 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 6

$58.64 8 times out of 10: between $34.82 and $125.44

Chance to end ahead 14%

Chance to double 1.8%

Chance at the top prize 0.02%

Contents and odds

77 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Fade	0.004%	$1 702.22
★ Karambit	0.004%	$965.91
★ Karambit \| Slaughter	0.004%	$959.90
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$888.72
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$744.01
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$713.21
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$711.03
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$683.65
★ M9 Bayonet	0.004%	$678.90
★ Karambit \| Stained	0.004%	$534.32
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$508.09
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$487.71
★ Karambit \| Night	0.004%	$483.69
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$470.72
★ Karambit \| Scorched	0.004%	$414.91
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$400.51
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$400.50
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$384.16
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained	0.004%	$375.49
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$369.90
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night	0.004%	$339.46
★ Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$324.78
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$317.82
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$301.85
★ Flip Knife \| Fade	0.004%	$288.69
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched	0.004%	$286.61
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$279.85
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$275.91
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$275.80
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter	0.004%	$258.09

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 8 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

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Questions

Why is the eSports 2013 Winter Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $14.58, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 66% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For eSports 2013 Winter Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 12 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 6 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.0%, and the chance to double the budget is 1.8%.