Return from opening Horizon Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$1.24 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Talon Knife | Fade · $754.93 · 0.005% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 31 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 31

$41.22 8 times out of 10: between $25.06 and $108.21

Chance to end ahead 12%

Chance to double 3.6%

Chance at the top prize 0.15%

Contents and odds

69 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Talon Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$754.93
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$543.48
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$408.54
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$394.80
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$373.46
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$359.39
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$359.19
★ Talon Knife	0.005%	$295.00
★ Talon Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$280.22
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$247.90
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$235.55
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$234.22
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$220.75
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$209.55
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$202.54
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$194.95
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$193.23
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$188.75
★ Stiletto Knife	0.005%	$183.00
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$180.30
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$167.46
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$150.58
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$149.61
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$138.84
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$137.21
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$126.41
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$121.41
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$120.81
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$119.15
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$111.51

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 12 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Spectrum 2 Case Payout 65% · Profit chance 18% E

Spectrum Case Payout 65% · Profit chance 17% E

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Payout 61% · Profit chance 12% D

Prisma 2 Case Payout 58% · Profit chance 9.8% E

Gamma 2 Case Payout 57% · Profit chance 15% E

Operation Wildfire Case Payout 56% · Profit chance 11% D

Questions

Why is the Horizon Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $3.16, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 61% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Horizon Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 52 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 31 openings the chance to pull ★ Talon Knife | Fade is 0.2%, and the chance to double the budget is 3.6%.