Return from opening Operation Hydra Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$13.10 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze · $4 207.63 · 0.01% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 3 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 3

$38.80 8 times out of 10: between $25.88 and $89.66

Chance to end ahead 7.8%

Chance to double 4.0%

Chance at the top prize 0.03%

Contents and odds

41 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze	0.01%	$4 207.63
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box	0.01%	$3 495.77
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor	0.01%	$1 771.95
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint	0.01%	$1 730.07
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono	0.01%	$1 710.36
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web	0.01%	$1 145.06
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave	0.01%	$964.63
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid	0.01%	$913.58
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint	0.01%	$870.13
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation	0.01%	$735.82
★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave	0.01%	$564.59
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather	0.01%	$524.45
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter	0.01%	$446.62
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse	0.01%	$436.73
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom!	0.01%	$425.64
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy	0.01%	$407.51
★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback	0.01%	$373.04
★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands	0.01%	$361.19
AWP \| Oni Taiji	0.32%	$347.02
★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT	0.01%	$321.86
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT	0.01%	$256.41
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast	0.32%	$255.44
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred	0.01%	$207.02
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed	0.01%	$179.42
M4A4 \| Hellfire	1.1%	$172.93
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite	0.01%	$165.32
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla	0.01%	$161.09
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush	1.1%	$68.52
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike	1.1%	$54.62
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01	3.2%	$39.35

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 16 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

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Questions

Why is the Operation Hydra Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $29.53, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 56% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Operation Hydra Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 4 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 3 openings the chance to pull ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze is 0.0%, and the chance to double the budget is 4.0%.