Return from opening Fracture Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$2.05 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade · $475.75 · 0.005% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 34 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 34

$13.38 8 times out of 10: between $7.25 and $56.68

Chance to end ahead 4.7%

Chance to double 1.5%

Chance at the top prize 0.17%

Contents and odds

69 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$475.75
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$376.83
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$276.12
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$258.86
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$246.18
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$217.01
★ Skeleton Knife	0.005%	$210.74
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$208.85
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$174.26
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$158.33
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$153.21
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$136.98
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$134.46
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$133.74
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$132.73
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$124.45
★ Survival Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$121.82
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$118.05
★ Nomad Knife	0.005%	$117.84
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$112.60
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$111.41
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$110.64
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$109.85
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$108.75
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$98.47
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$93.78
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$91.30
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$90.16
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$87.29
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$85.96

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 41 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Revolution Case Payout 31% · Profit chance 5.2% F

Operation Bravo Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.8% F

eSports 2013 Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.8% F

Kilowatt Case Payout 28% · Profit chance 3.9% F

Questions

Why is the Fracture Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $2.89, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 29% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Fracture Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 39 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 34 openings the chance to pull ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade is 0.2%, and the chance to double the budget is 1.5%.