Return from opening Operation Wildfire Case
Top prize ★ Bowie Knife | Fade · $192.59 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 19 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
29 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Bowie Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $192.59 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $184.10 |
 AK-47 | Fuel Injector | 0.32% | $153.75 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $146.22 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $139.43 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $102.35 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $73.70 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | 0.02% | $73.35 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Night | 0.02% | $72.56 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $61.04 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $52.88 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $51.01 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $50.89 |
 ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $47.31 |
 M4A4 | The Battlestar | 0.32% | $37.42 |
 Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon | 1.1% | $24.37 |
 Nova | Hyper Beast | 1.1% | $15.31 |
 AWP | Elite Build | 1.1% | $14.51 |
 FAMAS | Valence | 3.2% | $5.68 |
 Glock-18 | Royal Legion | 3.2% | $3.95 |
 Five-SeveN | Triumvirate | 3.2% | $3.94 |
 MP7 | Impire | 3.2% | $3.83 |
 MAG-7 | Praetorian | 3.2% | $2.71 |
 USP-S | Lead Conduit | 13% | $1.52 |
 MAC-10 | Lapis Gator | 13% | $1.15 |
 Dual Berettas | Cartel | 13% | $0.81 |
 Tec-9 | Jambiya | 13% | $0.79 |
 SSG 08 | Necropos | 13% | $0.73 |
 PP-Bizon | Photic Zone | 13% | $0.71 |
The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.
Ranked 15 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Operation Wildfire Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $5.03, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 57% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Operation Wildfire Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 31 openings attempts.
What if I get lucky?
Over 19 openings the chance to pull ★ Bowie Knife | Fade is 0.4%, and the chance to double the budget is 3.5%.