CS2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Trade-Ups — Live Expected Value
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CS2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec trade-ups

We scan every collection, wear and mix against live market prices. Each contract gets a range rather than a single number: what it returns on the worst input float, on the best one, and how likely it is to land in profit.

Sets evaluated 19952
With positive expectancy 12
Best expected profit $1.41
Updated 47 minutes ago
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Regular contracts

20
AUG | Spalted Wood ×10

10× AUG | Spalted Wood

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.41
Input cost
$5.50
On the worst float
$1.81
On the best float
$7.38
Result spread
$0.85
Price per item
$0.55

Profit range Worst outcome $1.81, best $7.38; buying blind $6.91.

In 1.2% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 25.0% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 25.0% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 25.0% $7.50
Open in the builder
AUG | Spalted Wood ×9 UMP-45 | Gunsmoke ×1

9× AUG | Spalted Wood + 1× UMP-45 | Gunsmoke

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.35
Input cost
$5.01
On the worst float
$4.69
On the best float
$7.91
Result spread
$1.95
Price per item
$0.50

Profit range Worst outcome $4.69, best $7.91; buying blind $6.36.

In 10.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
AUG | Spalted Wood ×9 MAC-10 | Calf Skin ×1

9× AUG | Spalted Wood + 1× MAC-10 | Calf Skin

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.34
Input cost
$5.01
On the worst float
$4.68
On the best float
$7.91
Result spread
$1.98
Price per item
$0.50

Profit range Worst outcome $4.68, best $7.91; buying blind $6.35.

In 10.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
AUG | Spalted Wood ×9 MAC-10 | Echoing Sands ×1

9× AUG | Spalted Wood + 1× MAC-10 | Echoing Sands

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.32
Input cost
$5.11
On the worst float
$4.77
On the best float
$7.98
Result spread
$1.76
Price per item
$0.51

Profit range Worst outcome $4.77, best $7.98; buying blind $6.43.

In 10.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
AUG | Spalted Wood ×9 Glock-18 | Death Rattle ×1

9× AUG | Spalted Wood + 1× Glock-18 | Death Rattle

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.29
Input cost
$5.02
On the worst float
$1.68
On the best float
$7.92
Result spread
$2.04
Price per item
$0.50

Profit range Worst outcome $1.68, best $7.92; buying blind $6.31.

In 10.6% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
AUG | Spalted Wood ×9 M249 | Spectrogram ×1

9× AUG | Spalted Wood + 1× M249 | Spectrogram

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.28
Input cost
$5.07
On the worst float
$1.74
On the best float
$6.75
Result spread
$1.89
Price per item
$0.51

Profit range Worst outcome $1.74, best $6.75; buying blind $6.35.

In 10.9% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
AUG | Spalted Wood ×9 CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×1

9× AUG | Spalted Wood + 1× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.27
Input cost
$5.20
On the worst float
$1.89
On the best float
$6.88
Result spread
$1.56
Price per item
$0.52

Profit range Worst outcome $1.89, best $6.88; buying blind $6.47.

In 10.9% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 UMP-45 | Gunsmoke ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× UMP-45 | Gunsmoke

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir
Buying blind +$0.01
Input cost
$6.36
On the worst float
$4.69
On the best float
$7.91
Result spread
$1.94
Price per item
$0.64

Profit range Worst outcome $4.69, best $7.91; buying blind $6.37.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir
Buying blind +$0.00
Input cost
$6.31
On the worst float
$4.64
On the best float
$7.86
Result spread
$2.09
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.64, best $7.86; buying blind $6.31.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 Galil AR | O-Ranger ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× Galil AR | O-Ranger

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir
Buying blind +$0.00
Input cost
$6.31
On the worst float
$4.64
On the best float
$7.87
Result spread
$2.09
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.64, best $7.87; buying blind $6.32.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 XM1014 | XoooM ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× XM1014 | XoooM

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir
Buying blind +$0.00
Input cost
$6.32
On the worst float
$4.64
On the best float
$7.86
Result spread
$2.08
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.64, best $7.86; buying blind $6.32.

In 10.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 P2000 | Marsh ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× P2000 | Marsh

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir
Buying blind +$0.00
Input cost
$6.31
On the worst float
$4.65
On the best float
$7.86
Result spread
$2.08
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.65, best $7.86; buying blind $6.32.

In 10.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.00
Input cost
$6.32
On the worst float
$4.64
On the best float
$7.86
Result spread
$2.09
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.64, best $7.86; buying blind $6.31.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 AUG | Condemned ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× AUG | Condemned

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.00
Input cost
$6.33
On the worst float
$4.66
On the best float
$7.87
Result spread
$2.05
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.66, best $7.87; buying blind $6.33.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 Galil AR | Cold Fusion ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× Galil AR | Cold Fusion

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.00
Input cost
$6.33
On the worst float
$4.65
On the best float
$7.89
Result spread
$2.05
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.65, best $7.89; buying blind $6.33.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 MAG-7 | Wildwood ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× MAG-7 | Wildwood

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.00
Input cost
$6.33
On the worst float
$4.65
On the best float
$7.87
Result spread
$2.06
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.65, best $7.87; buying blind $6.32.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 MAC-10 | Calf Skin ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× MAC-10 | Calf Skin

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.01
Input cost
$6.36
On the worst float
$4.68
On the best float
$7.91
Result spread
$1.97
Price per item
$0.64

Profit range Worst outcome $4.68, best $7.91; buying blind $6.35.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 FAMAS | Cyanospatter ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× FAMAS | Cyanospatter

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.01
Input cost
$6.33
On the worst float
$4.65
On the best float
$7.87
Result spread
$2.07
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.65, best $7.87; buying blind $6.32.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 FAMAS | Corp Defense ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× FAMAS | Corp Defense

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.01
Input cost
$6.33
On the worst float
$4.65
On the best float
$7.87
Result spread
$2.08
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.65, best $7.87; buying blind $6.32.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder
M249 | Midnight Palm ×9 AUG | Steel Sentinel ×1

9× M249 | Midnight Palm + 1× AUG | Steel Sentinel

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · FT · Field-Tested

Souvenir Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.01
Input cost
$6.33
On the worst float
$4.64
On the best float
$7.86
Result spread
$2.09
Price per item
$0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.64, best $7.86; buying blind $6.32.

In 10.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

  • G3SG1 | New Roots G3SG1 | New Roots Field-Tested 22.5% $8.26
  • Galil AR | Amber Fade Galil AR | Amber Fade Field-Tested 22.5% $8.06
  • P250 | Black & Tan P250 | Black & Tan Field-Tested 22.5% $7.50
Open in the builder

StatTrak™

0

No contract for this transition passes the liquidity thresholds right now. Check back in an hour — prices refresh.

Collections in this transition

46

How we calculate this

The input price is the best buy price across five markets for that exact wear; for regular contracts we take whichever of the normal and Souvenir version is cheaper and actually has enough listings. The outcome price is the same best price for the projected output wear, minus the selling fee. An outcome only counts if at least two independent markets confirm its price. Outcomes without a live price are counted as zero, so the estimate is conservative and their share is shown on its own line. Phase knives trade under one phaseless market hash whose price is the cheapest phase, so gold-tier expected values are understated.

A trade-up contract is an in-game CS2 mechanic by Valve. This site does not trade, does not accept items and is not affiliated with Valve Corporation. Prices come from external markets, refresh hourly and may differ from the live ones; buying ten lots at the shown price is not always possible. On top of the selling fee there are deposit and withdrawal fees, and an item bought on a third-party market arrives by trade and cannot be resold on Steam for seven days. Expected value is an average over many repetitions, not a promise about one attempt: for most contracts the chance of getting back less than you spent is above 50%. Informational material, not financial advice.