CS2 Mil-Spec → Restricted trade-ups

We scan every collection, wear and mix against live market prices. Each contract gets a range rather than a single number: what it returns on the worst input float, on the best one, and how likely it is to land in profit.

Sets evaluated 41292

With positive expectancy 22

Best expected profit $1.52

Updated 3 minutes ago

Selling fee

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Budget

Regular contracts

×10

10× P2000 | Royal Baroque

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.52

Input cost: $7.40
On the worst float: $5.49
On the best float: $9.05
Result spread: $3.97
Price per item: $0.74

Profit range Worst outcome $5.49, best $9.05; buying blind $8.92.

In 51.8% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 50.0% $14.49
USP-S | Royal Guard Factory New 50.0% $5.63

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× M4A1-S | Rose Hex

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.43

Input cost: $7.30
On the worst float: $4.16
On the best float: $8.93
Result spread: $3.94
Price per item: $0.73

Profit range Worst outcome $4.16, best $8.93; buying blind $8.73.

In 54.4% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
Desert Eagle | Mulberry Factory New 3.3% $14.37
USP-S | Bleeding Edge Factory New 3.3% $5.84

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× P90 | Aeolian Light

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.43

Input cost: $7.36
On the worst float: $5.24
On the best float: $8.89
Result spread: $3.83
Price per item: $0.74

Profit range Worst outcome $5.24, best $8.89; buying blind $8.79.

In 51.5% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
AK-47 | Breakthrough Factory New 5.0% $9.83
Glock-18 | Trace Lock Factory New 5.0% $6.77

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.41

Input cost: $7.03
On the worst float: $5.10
On the best float: $8.57
Result spread: $4.04
Price per item: $0.70

Profit range Worst outcome $5.10, best $8.57; buying blind $8.45.

In 56.7% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning Factory New 5.0% $5.65
USP-S | Royal Guard Factory New 45.0% $5.63

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.39

Input cost: $7.47
On the worst float: $5.33
On the best float: $8.96
Result spread: $3.78
Price per item: $0.75

Profit range Worst outcome $5.33, best $8.96; buying blind $8.86.

In 46.4% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
AWP | Exothermic Factory New 5.0% $9.57
USP-S | Sleeping Potion Factory New 5.0% $8.48

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× P250 | Exchanger

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.39

Input cost: $8.56
On the worst float: $4.41
On the best float: $10.32
Result spread: $7.66
Price per item: $0.86

Profit range Worst outcome $4.41, best $10.32; buying blind $9.95.

In 50.5% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden Factory New 3.3% $51.00
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
AUG | Random Access Factory New 3.3% $9.75

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× Glock-18 | Teal Graf

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.34

Input cost: $7.23
On the worst float: $4.11
On the best float: $8.84
Result spread: $3.89
Price per item: $0.72

Profit range Worst outcome $4.11, best $8.84; buying blind $8.57.

In 55.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New 3.3% $8.90
AUG | Eye of Zapems Factory New 3.3% $7.60

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 2× P90 | Aeolian Light

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.33

Input cost: $7.32
On the worst float: $4.99
On the best float: $8.74
Result spread: $3.67
Price per item: $0.73

Profit range Worst outcome $4.99, best $8.74; buying blind $8.65.

In 51.3% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 40.0% $14.49
AK-47 | Breakthrough Factory New 10.0% $9.83
Glock-18 | Trace Lock Factory New 10.0% $6.77

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 2× M4A1-S | Rose Hex

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.32

Input cost: $7.19
On the worst float: $4.10
On the best float: $8.80
Result spread: $3.90
Price per item: $0.72

Profit range Worst outcome $4.10, best $8.80; buying blind $8.51.

In 57.3% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 40.0% $14.49
Desert Eagle | Mulberry Factory New 6.7% $14.37
USP-S | Bleeding Edge Factory New 6.7% $5.84

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 2× MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.30

Input cost: $6.67
On the worst float: $4.72
On the best float: $8.09
Result spread: $4.05
Price per item: $0.67

Profit range Worst outcome $4.72, best $8.09; buying blind $7.97.

In 61.5% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 40.0% $14.49
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning Factory New 10.0% $5.65
USP-S | Royal Guard Factory New 40.0% $5.63

Open in the builder

×5

5× MP9 | Shredded + 5× P2000 | Royal Baroque

The Radiant Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.30

Input cost: $7.01
On the worst float: $5.03
On the best float: $8.41
Result spread: $3.84
Price per item: $0.70

Profit range Worst outcome $5.03, best $8.41; buying blind $8.31.

In 59.9% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 25.0% $14.49
Desert Eagle | Mulberry Factory New 16.7% $14.37
USP-S | Bleeding Edge Factory New 16.7% $5.84

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.28

Input cost: $6.87
On the worst float: $3.87
On the best float: $8.32
Result spread: $4.39
Price per item: $0.69

Profit range Worst outcome $3.87, best $8.32; buying blind $8.15.

In 56.9% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
USP-S | Royal Guard Factory New 45.0% $5.63
USP-S | Ticket to Hell Factory New 2.0% $2.31

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.27

Input cost: $7.40
On the worst float: $5.17
On the best float: $8.82
Result spread: $4.06
Price per item: $0.74

Profit range Worst outcome $5.17, best $8.82; buying blind $8.67.

In 54.7% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Turbine Factory New 2.0% $16.57
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
SSG 08 | Rapid Transit Factory New 2.0% $6.77

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 2× Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.26

Input cost: $7.54
On the worst float: $5.17
On the best float: $8.87
Result spread: $3.58
Price per item: $0.75

Profit range Worst outcome $5.17, best $8.87; buying blind $8.80.

In 41.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 40.0% $14.49
AWP | Exothermic Factory New 10.0% $9.57
USP-S | Sleeping Potion Factory New 10.0% $8.48

Open in the builder

×6

×4

6× MP9 | Shredded + 4× P2000 | Royal Baroque

The Radiant Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.25

Input cost: $6.93
On the worst float: $4.94
On the best float: $8.29
Result spread: $3.81
Price per item: $0.69

Profit range Worst outcome $4.94, best $8.29; buying blind $8.18.

In 61.5% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 20.0% $14.49
Desert Eagle | Mulberry Factory New 20.0% $14.37
USP-S | Bleeding Edge Factory New 20.0% $5.84

Open in the builder

×7

×3

7× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 3× P90 | Aeolian Light

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.23

Input cost: $7.28
On the worst float: $4.75
On the best float: $8.58
Result spread: $3.49
Price per item: $0.73

Profit range Worst outcome $4.75, best $8.58; buying blind $8.51.

In 51.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 35.0% $14.49
AK-47 | Breakthrough Factory New 15.0% $9.83
Glock-18 | Trace Lock Factory New 15.0% $6.77

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× UMP-45 | Oscillator

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.23

Input cost: $7.04
On the worst float: $3.97
On the best float: $8.76
Result spread: $4.23
Price per item: $0.70

Profit range Worst outcome $3.97, best $8.76; buying blind $8.27.

In 57.3% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
AK-47 | Slate Minimal Wear 2.0% $5.92
USP-S | Royal Guard Factory New 45.0% $5.63

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 2× P250 | Exchanger

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.22

Input cost: $9.72
On the worst float: $4.61
On the best float: $11.58
Result spread: $9.96
Price per item: $0.97

Profit range Worst outcome $4.61, best $11.58; buying blind $10.94.

In 56.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden Factory New 6.7% $51.00
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 40.0% $14.49
AUG | Random Access Factory New 6.7% $9.75

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.22

Input cost: $7.08
On the worst float: $3.92
On the best float: $8.48
Result spread: $4.13
Price per item: $0.71

Profit range Worst outcome $3.92, best $8.48; buying blind $8.29.

In 57.6% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
MP9 | Goo Factory New 2.0% $6.17
USP-S | Royal Guard Factory New 45.0% $5.63

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P2000 | Royal Baroque + 1× SCAR-20 | Assault

The Ascent Collection · FN · Factory New

Buying blind +$1.21

Input cost: $7.26
On the worst float: $5.12
On the best float: $8.63
Result spread: $4.10
Price per item: $0.73

Profit range Worst outcome $5.12, best $8.63; buying blind $8.47.

In 54.5% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate Factory New 45.0% $14.49
P250 | Inferno Factory New 2.0% $10.00
USP-S | Royal Guard Factory New 45.0% $5.63

Open in the builder

StatTrak™

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× MP5-SD | Necro Jr.

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™

Buying blind +$0.01

Input cost: $5.97
On the worst float: $3.80
On the best float: $6.50
Result spread: $6.33
Price per item: $0.60

Profit range Worst outcome $3.80, best $6.50; buying blind $5.98.

In 64.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 18.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× MAG-7 | Insomnia

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™

Buying blind +$0.00

Input cost: $5.99
On the worst float: $3.82
On the best float: $6.52
Result spread: $6.32
Price per item: $0.60

Profit range Worst outcome $3.82, best $6.52; buying blind $5.99.

In 64.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 18.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P90 | Elite Build + 2× MP5-SD | Necro Jr.

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.00

Input cost: $5.44
On the worst float: $3.49
On the best float: $6.01
Result spread: $6.16
Price per item: $0.54

Profit range Worst outcome $3.49, best $6.01; buying blind $5.44.

In 68.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 16.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 16.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 16.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× UMP-45 | Fragment

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.00

Input cost: $6.23
On the worst float: $4.06
On the best float: $6.64
Result spread: $6.20
Price per item: $0.62

Profit range Worst outcome $4.06, best $6.64; buying blind $6.22.

In 62.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29
M4A1-S | Electrum Minimal Wear 2.0% $7.14

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× MAG-7 | MAGnitude

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.01

Input cost: $6.31
On the worst float: $4.13
On the best float: $6.71
Result spread: $6.24
Price per item: $0.63

Profit range Worst outcome $4.13, best $6.71; buying blind $6.30.

In 62.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
M4A1-S | Liquidation Minimal Wear 2.0% $12.34
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P90 | Elite Build + 2× MAG-7 | Insomnia

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.02

Input cost: $5.48
On the worst float: $3.52
On the best float: $6.05
Result spread: $6.15
Price per item: $0.55

Profit range Worst outcome $3.52, best $6.05; buying blind $5.46.

In 68.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 16.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 16.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 16.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× MAC-10 | Monkeyflage

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.03

Input cost: $6.01
On the worst float: $3.81
On the best float: $6.45
Result spread: $6.33
Price per item: $0.60

Profit range Worst outcome $3.81, best $6.45; buying blind $5.98.

In 64.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 18.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P90 | Elite Build + 2× UMP-45 | Fragment

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.03

Input cost: $5.96
On the worst float: $3.99
On the best float: $6.29
Result spread: $5.93
Price per item: $0.60

Profit range Worst outcome $3.99, best $6.29; buying blind $5.92.

In 64.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 16.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 16.0% $7.29
M4A1-S | Electrum Minimal Wear 4.0% $7.14

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P90 | Elite Build + 2× MAG-7 | MAGnitude

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.04

Input cost: $6.11
On the worst float: $4.15
On the best float: $6.44
Result spread: $6.03
Price per item: $0.61

Profit range Worst outcome $4.15, best $6.44; buying blind $6.08.

In 64.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 16.0% $21.24
M4A1-S | Liquidation Minimal Wear 4.0% $12.34
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 16.0% $7.29

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× P2000 | Sure Grip

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.04

Input cost: $6.00
On the worst float: $3.56
On the best float: $6.60
Result spread: $6.26
Price per item: $0.60

Profit range Worst outcome $3.56, best $6.60; buying blind $5.96.

In 64.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 18.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× Sawed-Off | Black Sand

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.04

Input cost: $6.11
On the worst float: $3.64
On the best float: $6.67
Result spread: $6.20
Price per item: $0.61

Profit range Worst outcome $3.64, best $6.67; buying blind $6.07.

In 64.1% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29
P250 | Nevermore Factory New 2.0% $4.00

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× UMP-45 | Briefing

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.05

Input cost: $6.12
On the worst float: $3.90
On the best float: $6.57
Result spread: $6.26
Price per item: $0.61

Profit range Worst outcome $3.90, best $6.57; buying blind $6.07.

In 64.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 18.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×7

×3

7× P90 | Elite Build + 3× UMP-45 | Fragment

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.06

Input cost: $5.68
On the worst float: $3.24
On the best float: $5.94
Result spread: $5.63
Price per item: $0.57

Profit range Worst outcome $3.24, best $5.94; buying blind $5.62.

In 66.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 14.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 14.0% $7.29
M4A1-S | Electrum Minimal Wear 6.0% $7.14

Open in the builder

×7

×3

7× P90 | Elite Build + 3× MAG-7 | MAGnitude

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.07

Input cost: $5.92
On the worst float: $3.31
On the best float: $6.17
Result spread: $5.80
Price per item: $0.59

Profit range Worst outcome $3.31, best $6.17; buying blind $5.85.

In 66.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 14.0% $21.24
M4A1-S | Liquidation Minimal Wear 6.0% $12.34
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 14.0% $7.29

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P90 | Elite Build + 2× MAC-10 | Monkeyflage

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.08

Input cost: $5.52
On the worst float: $3.51
On the best float: $5.92
Result spread: $6.16
Price per item: $0.55

Profit range Worst outcome $3.51, best $5.92; buying blind $5.44.

In 68.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 16.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 16.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 16.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× UMP-45 | Corporal

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.08

Input cost: $6.67
On the worst float: $4.36
On the best float: $9.20
Result spread: $6.18
Price per item: $0.67

Profit range Worst outcome $4.36, best $9.20; buying blind $6.59.

In 77.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MAC-10 | Heat Minimal Wear 2.5% $10.45
USP-S | Guardian Factory New 2.5% $10.07

Open in the builder

×6

×4

6× P90 | Elite Build + 4× UMP-45 | Fragment

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.09

Input cost: $5.41
On the worst float: $3.87
On the best float: $5.59
Result spread: $5.30
Price per item: $0.54

Profit range Worst outcome $3.87, best $5.59; buying blind $5.32.

In 68.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 12.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 12.0% $7.29
M4A1-S | Electrum Minimal Wear 8.0% $7.14

Open in the builder

×6

×4

6× P90 | Elite Build + 4× MAG-7 | MAGnitude

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.10

Input cost: $5.73
On the worst float: $4.18
On the best float: $5.90
Result spread: $5.55
Price per item: $0.57

Profit range Worst outcome $4.18, best $5.90; buying blind $5.63.

In 68.0% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 12.0% $21.24
M4A1-S | Liquidation Minimal Wear 8.0% $12.34
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 12.0% $7.29

Open in the builder

×9

×1

9× P90 | Elite Build + 1× UMP-45 | Motorized

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.10

Input cost: $5.99
On the worst float: $3.55
On the best float: $6.48
Result spread: $6.17
Price per item: $0.60

Profit range Worst outcome $3.55, best $6.48; buying blind $5.89.

In 64.2% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 18.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 18.0% $7.29
FAMAS | Neural Net Minimal Wear 18.0% $3.21

Open in the builder

×8

×2

8× P90 | Elite Build + 2× Sawed-Off | Black Sand

The Falchion Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Negative right now

Buying blind −$0.10

Input cost: $5.72
On the worst float: $3.45
On the best float: $6.35
Result spread: $5.90
Price per item: $0.57

Profit range Worst outcome $3.45, best $6.35; buying blind $5.62.

In 68.2% of runs the result is worth less than the inputs.

Possible outcomes

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo Factory New 16.0% $21.24
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart Factory New 16.0% $7.29
P250 | Nevermore Factory New 4.0% $4.00

Open in the builder

Collections in this transition

Collection	Inputs	Outcomes	Cheapest input
The Fracture Collection	7	5	$0.50
The Revolution Collection	7	5	$0.50
The Kilowatt Collection	7	5	$0.50
The Fever Collection	7	5	$0.50
The Dead Hand Collection	7	5	$0.50
The Boreal Collection	5	2	$0.54
The Genesis Collection	7	5	$0.59
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection	7	5	$0.60
The Recoil Collection	7	5	$0.60
The Dust 2 Collection	3	1	$0.60
The Clutch Collection	7	5	$0.78
The Lake Collection	3	1	$0.90
The Safehouse Collection	3	1	$0.90
The Spectrum 2 Collection	7	5	$1.00
The Italy Collection	3	1	$1.00
The Prisma 2 Collection	7	5	$1.05
The Radiant Collection	6	3	$1.05
The Danger Zone Collection	7	5	$1.10
The Gallery Collection	7	5	$1.10
The Achroma Collection	4	2	$1.10
The Ascent Collection	5	2	$1.10
The Gamma 2 Collection	7	5	$1.20
The Train 2025 Collection	4	3	$1.20
The Train Collection	2	1	$1.20
The Overpass 2024 Collection	4	3	$1.30
The Harlequin Collection	4	2	$1.37
The 2018 Nuke Collection	4	3	$1.47
The Snakebite Collection	7	5	$1.50
The Arabesque Collection	4	3	$1.65
The Spy Tech Collection	4	3	$1.70
The Chroma 3 Collection	7	5	$1.80
The Prisma Collection	7	5	$1.80
The Shadow Collection	7	4	$1.80
The Revolver Case Collection	6	6	$1.90
The Spectrum Collection	7	5	$1.90
The Horizon Collection	7	5	$1.90
The Bank Collection	3	1	$2.19
The CS20 Collection	7	5	$2.20
The Chroma 2 Collection	6	4	$2.20
The Sport & Field Collection	4	3	$2.20
The Falchion Collection	6	5	$2.30
The Gamma Collection	7	5	$2.40
The Breakout Collection	5	4	$2.60
The Glove Collection	7	5	$3.00
The Chroma Collection	5	4	$3.00
The Phoenix Collection	4	4	$3.06
The Wildfire Collection	6	5	$3.10
The Operation Broken Fang Collection	7	5	$3.80
The 2018 Inferno Collection	4	3	$4.70
The Operation Riptide Collection	7	5	$5.60
The Shattered Web Collection	7	5	$5.77
The Vanguard Collection	5	4	$6.10
The Anubis Collection	4	3	$7.40
The Graphic Design Collection	4	3	$8.30
The Huntsman Collection	9	5	$8.40
The Winter Offensive Collection	4	4	$11.80
The 2021 Train Collection	7	5	$13.00
The eSports 2013 Winter Collection	6	2	$16.10
The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	6	5	$17.39
The eSports 2013 Collection	3	3	$21.84
The 2021 Mirage Collection	4	3	$22.40
The Arms Deal 2 Collection	5	4	$22.50
The Arms Deal 3 Collection	5	4	$27.40
The Operation Hydra Collection	7	5	$29.84
The Bravo Collection	6	4	$31.60
The Ancient Collection	4	3	$33.90
The Vertigo Collection	2	1	$35.00
The 2021 Vertigo Collection	4	3	$42.84
The Overpass Collection	3	2	$44.58
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection	4	3	$61.55
The Cache Collection	5	2	$78.10
The Arms Deal Collection	3	3	$101.70
The Havoc Collection	4	3	$125.00
The Control Collection	4	3	$127.38
The Mirage Collection	3	1	$137.34
The Alpha Collection	3	2	$143.22
The Militia Collection	5	1	$158.45
The Canals Collection	4	3	$188.27
The Baggage Collection	3	2	$248.01
The Nuke Collection	1	2	$248.90
The Chop Shop Collection	5	2	$256.52
The Cobblestone Collection	2	2	$420.45
The Norse Collection	4	3	$554.77
The St. Marc Collection	4	3	$556.72
The Dust Collection	3	3	$595.50
The Rising Sun Collection	3	4	$752.80
The Gods and Monsters Collection	2	2	$913.73
The Assault Collection	2	2	$2963.00

How we calculate this

The input price is the best buy price across five markets for that exact wear; for regular contracts we take whichever of the normal and Souvenir version is cheaper and actually has enough listings. The outcome price is the same best price for the projected output wear, minus the selling fee. An outcome only counts if at least two independent markets confirm its price. Outcomes without a live price are counted as zero, so the estimate is conservative and their share is shown on its own line. Phase knives trade under one phaseless market hash whose price is the cheapest phase, so gold-tier expected values are understated.

A trade-up contract is an in-game CS2 mechanic by Valve. This site does not trade, does not accept items and is not affiliated with Valve Corporation. Prices come from external markets, refresh hourly and may differ from the live ones; buying ten lots at the shown price is not always possible. On top of the selling fee there are deposit and withdrawal fees, and an item bought on a third-party market arrives by trade and cannot be resold on Steam for seven days. Expected value is an average over many repetitions, not a promise about one attempt: for most contracts the chance of getting back less than you spent is above 50%. Informational material, not financial advice.