Return from opening CS:GO Weapon Case 2

In-game case, Valve odds

−$7.52 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1 702.22 · 0.004% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 4 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 4

$62.15 8 times out of 10: between $37.50 and $107.20

Chance to end ahead 12%

Chance to double 0.90%

Chance at the top prize 0.02%

Contents and odds

77 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Fade	0.004%	$1 702.22
★ Karambit	0.004%	$965.90
★ Karambit \| Slaughter	0.004%	$959.90
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$888.52
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$744.01
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$712.63
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$711.03
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$683.65
★ M9 Bayonet	0.004%	$670.00
★ Karambit \| Stained	0.004%	$533.89
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$508.24
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$491.51
★ Karambit \| Night	0.004%	$483.28
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$471.81
★ Karambit \| Scorched	0.004%	$414.91
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$400.50
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$399.20
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$379.44
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained	0.004%	$375.42
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$369.72
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night	0.004%	$339.45
★ Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$326.03
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$317.82
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$302.38
★ Flip Knife \| Fade	0.004%	$288.65
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched	0.004%	$286.16
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$279.86
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$276.20
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$275.91
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter	0.004%	$261.35

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 5 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Payout 77% · Profit chance 16% C

Chroma 2 Case Payout 72% · Profit chance 17% D

Gamma Case Payout 71% · Profit chance 18% D

Chroma 3 Case Payout 67% · Profit chance 17% E

Prisma Case Payout 67% · Profit chance 13% E

eSports 2013 Winter Case Payout 66% · Profit chance 14% D

Questions

Why is the CS:GO Weapon Case 2 payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $20.99, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 64% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For CS:GO Weapon Case 2, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 9 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 4 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.0%, and the chance to double the budget is 0.9%.