Return from opening Danger Zone Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$1.72 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Talon Knife | Fade · $754.93 · 0.005% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 32 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 32

$24.99 8 times out of 10: between $15.57 and $77.89

Chance to end ahead 8.5%

Chance to double 4.0%

Chance at the top prize 0.16%

Contents and odds

69 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Talon Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$754.93
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$547.22
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$408.63
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$394.81
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$373.46
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$360.53
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$357.89
★ Talon Knife	0.005%	$295.00
★ Talon Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$280.22
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$247.95
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$235.56
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$234.23
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$220.99
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$207.44
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$205.10
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$194.00
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$193.23
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$189.65
★ Stiletto Knife	0.005%	$183.00
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$180.30
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$167.67
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$151.22
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$150.20
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$138.89
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$137.21
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$125.82
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$121.13
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$120.81
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$119.39
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$111.41

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 30 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Operation Breakout Weapon Case Payout 46% · Profit chance 8.3% F

Operation Riptide Case Payout 46% · Profit chance 6.1% F

Dreams & Nightmares Case Payout 46% · Profit chance 5.6% F

Snakebite Case Payout 45% · Profit chance 6.5% F

Gallery Case Payout 43% · Profit chance 8.6% F

Fever Case Payout 41% · Profit chance 8.5% F

Questions

Why is the Danger Zone Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $3.11, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 45% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Danger Zone Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 41 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 32 openings the chance to pull ★ Talon Knife | Fade is 0.2%, and the chance to double the budget is 4.0%.