Dreams & Nightmares Case: 46% RTP, 5.8% profit — CS2Collections.net
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$ usd
Dreams & Nightmares Case

Return from opening Dreams & Nightmares Case

In-game case, Valve odds Opening price$3.50
F Grade
46% Payout
−$1.89 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler · $1 653.00 · 0.0052% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 28 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 28
Left after 28 openings $13.76 8 times out of 10: between $6.93 and $75.39
Chance to end ahead 5.8%
Chance to double 2.7%
Chance at the top prize 0.15%
Openings until zero 32

Contents and odds

67 items
ItemOddsMarket price
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$1 653.00
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$1 653.00
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$1 653.00
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$1 653.00
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$1 653.00
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic0.0052%$831.83
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore0.0052%$664.21
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate0.0052%$575.60
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand0.0052%$571.39
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water0.0052%$506.93
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$200.65
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$200.65
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$200.65
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$200.65
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$200.65
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$194.78
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$194.78
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$194.78
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$194.78
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$194.78
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$171.80
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$171.80
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$171.80
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$171.80
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$171.80
★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic0.0052%$99.70
★ Falchion Knife | Lore0.0052%$96.40
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$95.01
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$95.01
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler0.0052%$95.01

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 29 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

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Questions

Why is the Dreams & Nightmares Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $3.50, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 46% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Dreams & Nightmares Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 32 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 28 openings the chance to pull ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler is 0.1%, and the chance to double the budget is 2.7%.