Return from opening Falchion Case
Top prize ★ Falchion Knife | Fade · $199.44 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 26 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
29 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Falchion Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $199.44 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $188.25 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $154.19 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $124.11 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $122.13 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | 0.02% | $97.91 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $76.38 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Night | 0.02% | $71.00 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $70.62 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $59.60 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $59.13 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $55.57 |
 ★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $52.57 |
 AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge | 0.32% | $45.24 |
 AWP | Hyper Beast | 0.32% | $39.75 |
 MP7 | Nemesis | 1.1% | $12.70 |
 SG 553 | Cyrex | 1.1% | $5.47 |
 CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket | 1.1% | $5.24 |
 M4A4 | Evil Daimyo | 3.2% | $4.92 |
 MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart | 3.2% | $2.20 |
 FAMAS | Neural Net | 3.2% | $1.96 |
 Galil AR | Rocket Pop | 13% | $1.58 |
 P2000 | Handgun | 3.2% | $1.38 |
 Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner | 13% | $1.19 |
 USP-S | Torque | 13% | $0.99 |
 Negev | Loudmouth | 3.2% | $0.94 |
 UMP-45 | Riot | 13% | $0.47 |
 Nova | Ranger | 13% | $0.44 |
 P90 | Elite Build | 13% | $0.41 |
The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.
Ranked 23 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the Falchion Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $3.81, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 48% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Falchion Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 41 openings attempts.
What if I get lucky?
Over 26 openings the chance to pull ★ Falchion Knife | Fade is 0.5%, and the chance to double the budget is 1.5%.