Return from opening Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$2.89 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1 702.22 · 0.004% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 17 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 17

$24.76 8 times out of 10: between $15.49 and $107.33

Chance to end ahead 11%

Chance to double 2.5%

Chance at the top prize 0.07%

Contents and odds

78 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Fade	0.004%	$1 702.22
★ Karambit	0.004%	$965.90
★ Karambit \| Slaughter	0.004%	$959.90
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$888.52
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$744.01
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$712.63
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$711.03
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$683.65
★ M9 Bayonet	0.004%	$678.90
★ Karambit \| Stained	0.004%	$533.89
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$508.05
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$491.51
★ Karambit \| Night	0.004%	$483.47
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$471.81
★ Karambit \| Scorched	0.004%	$414.91
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$400.50
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$399.20
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$379.44
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained	0.004%	$375.56
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$369.79
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night	0.004%	$339.45
★ Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$326.03
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$317.82
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$302.65
★ Flip Knife \| Fade	0.004%	$288.65
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched	0.004%	$286.16
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$279.88
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$276.20
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$275.91
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter	0.004%	$261.35

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 22 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Shadow Case Payout 51% · Profit chance 14% D

Operation Broken Fang Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 6.9% F

Revolver Case Payout 49% · Profit chance 12% F

Winter Offensive Weapon Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 7.2% F

Falchion Case Payout 47% · Profit chance 5.9% E

Shattered Web Case Payout 47% · Profit chance 8.2% E

Questions

Why is the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $5.63, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 49% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 22 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 17 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.1%, and the chance to double the budget is 2.5%.