Return from opening CS:GO Weapon Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$70.80 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Karambit | Fade · $1 702.22 · 0.004% chance per opening

What happens to $100

The budget is too low: one opening costs $102.64. Increase it to at least this amount to calculate the scenario.

Contents and odds

74 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Karambit \| Fade	0.004%	$1 702.22
★ Karambit	0.004%	$965.90
★ Karambit \| Slaughter	0.004%	$959.90
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$888.52
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$744.01
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$712.63
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$711.03
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$683.65
★ M9 Bayonet	0.004%	$678.90
★ Karambit \| Stained	0.004%	$533.89
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web	0.004%	$508.24
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened	0.004%	$491.51
★ Karambit \| Night	0.004%	$483.28
AWP \| Lightning Strike	0.64%	$480.28
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel	0.004%	$471.81
★ Karambit \| Scorched	0.004%	$414.91
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$400.50
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$399.20
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$379.44
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained	0.004%	$375.42
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$369.72
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night	0.004%	$339.45
★ Bayonet \| Fade	0.004%	$326.03
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter	0.004%	$317.82
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked	0.004%	$302.38
★ Flip Knife \| Fade	0.004%	$288.65
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched	0.004%	$286.16
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT	0.004%	$279.86
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh	0.004%	$276.20
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest	0.004%	$275.91

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 37 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

CS20 Case Payout 40% · Profit chance 7.8% F

Recoil Case Payout 33% · Profit chance 5.9% F

Clutch Case Payout 33% · Profit chance 3.6% F

Revolution Case Payout 31% · Profit chance 5.2% F

Operation Bravo Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.8% F

eSports 2013 Case Payout 29% · Profit chance 4.8% F

Questions

Why is the CS:GO Weapon Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $102.64, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 31% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For CS:GO Weapon Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 0 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 0 openings the chance to pull ★ Karambit | Fade is 0.0%, and the chance to double the budget is 0.0%.