Return from opening Revolution Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$1.84 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Sport Gloves | Vice · $536.40 · 0.01% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 37 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 37

$14.22 8 times out of 10: between $7.64 and $57.60

Chance to end ahead 5.2%

Chance to double 2.5%

Chance at the top prize 0.40%

Contents and odds

41 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice	0.01%	$536.40
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious	0.01%	$314.17
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade	0.01%	$211.30
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega	0.01%	$210.71
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls	0.01%	$208.31
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake	0.01%	$182.68
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid	0.01%	$152.74
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web	0.01%	$142.13
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon	0.01%	$107.43
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul	0.01%	$98.87
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint	0.01%	$97.55
★ Moto Gloves \| POW!	0.01%	$80.64
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph	0.01%	$78.68
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle	0.01%	$64.47
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened	0.01%	$58.79
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake	0.01%	$48.27
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape	0.01%	$45.77
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot	0.01%	$44.17
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal	0.01%	$41.71
M4A4 \| Temukau	0.32%	$38.12
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport	0.01%	$36.06
AK-47 \| Head Shot	0.32%	$32.27
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald	0.01%	$32.26
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green	0.01%	$29.70
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler	0.01%	$27.83
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove	0.01%	$27.71
AWP \| Duality	1.1%	$4.05
P2000 \| Wicked Sick	1.1%	$3.63
UMP-45 \| Wild Child	1.1%	$3.60
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S	3.2%	$0.69

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 38 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Recoil Case Payout 33% · Profit chance 6.0% F

Clutch Case Payout 33% · Profit chance 3.6% F

CS:GO Weapon Case Payout 31% · Profit chance 0.0% E

Operation Bravo Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.8% F

eSports 2013 Case Payout 30% · Profit chance 4.8% F

Fracture Case Payout 29% · Profit chance 4.7% F

Questions

Why is the Revolution Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $2.66, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 31% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Revolution Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 42 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 37 openings the chance to pull ★ Sport Gloves | Vice is 0.4%, and the chance to double the budget is 2.5%.