Return from opening Shattered Web Case

In-game case, Valve odds

−$3.39 Average loss per opening

Top prize ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade · $475.89 · 0.005% chance per opening

What happens to $100

Scenario: open the case 15 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:

Openings it buys 15

$34.45 8 times out of 10: between $25.80 and $88.56

Chance to end ahead 8.2%

Chance to double 0.60%

Chance at the top prize 0.07%

Contents and odds

69 items

Item	Odds	Market price
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$475.89
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$378.91
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$281.16
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$257.39
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$246.50
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$219.26
★ Skeleton Knife	0.005%	$209.84
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$208.52
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$173.26
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$158.28
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$152.01
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$138.07
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$134.51
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel	0.005%	$133.48
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$131.40
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched	0.005%	$125.24
★ Survival Knife \| Fade	0.005%	$125.03
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$119.81
★ Nomad Knife	0.005%	$116.41
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained	0.005%	$112.57
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT	0.005%	$112.37
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest	0.005%	$111.49
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh	0.005%	$111.19
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter	0.005%	$108.07
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened	0.005%	$98.00
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked	0.005%	$95.93
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$91.50
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe	0.005%	$90.12
AWP \| Containment Breach	0.32%	$87.59
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web	0.005%	$87.51

The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.

Open in the simulator Case page

Ranked 26 of 42 CS2 cases by payout

Cases with a similar payout

Winter Offensive Weapon Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 7.4% F

Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Payout 48% · Profit chance 11% F

Falchion Case Payout 47% · Profit chance 5.9% E

Dreams & Nightmares Case Payout 46% · Profit chance 5.8% F

Operation Breakout Weapon Case Payout 46% · Profit chance 8.3% F

Operation Riptide Case Payout 46% · Profit chance 6.0% F

Questions

Why is the Shattered Web Case payout below 100%?

The case and key cost $6.39, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 47% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.

Where do the prices come from?

The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.

What does “openings until zero” mean?

The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For Shattered Web Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 23 openings attempts.

What if I get lucky?

Over 15 openings the chance to pull ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade is 0.1%, and the chance to double the budget is 0.6%.