Return from opening CS20 Case
Top prize ★ Classic Knife | Fade · $251.13 · 0.02% chance per opening
What happens to $100
Scenario: open the case 30 times with the whole $100 budget and sell every drop at market prices. Here is what you get:
Contents and odds
30 items| Item | Odds | Market price |
|---|---|---|
 ★ Classic Knife | Fade | 0.02% | $251.13 |
 ★ Classic Knife | 0.02% | $170.74 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Slaughter | 0.02% | $169.77 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web | 0.02% | $154.93 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened | 0.02% | $134.66 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel | 0.02% | $109.94 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe | 0.02% | $95.71 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Stained | 0.02% | $89.88 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked | 0.02% | $79.45 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Scorched | 0.02% | $76.65 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT | 0.02% | $63.67 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest | 0.02% | $63.62 |
 ★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh | 0.02% | $61.45 |
 AWP | Wildfire | 0.32% | $57.01 |
 FAMAS | Commemoration | 0.32% | $35.33 |
 MP9 | Hydra | 1.1% | $7.95 |
 AUG | Death by Puppy | 1.1% | $5.55 |
 P90 | Nostalgia | 1.1% | $5.00 |
 P250 | Inferno | 3.2% | $1.50 |
 Five-SeveN | Buddy | 3.2% | $1.37 |
 MP5-SD | Agent | 3.2% | $0.93 |
 UMP-45 | Plastique | 3.2% | $0.86 |
 M249 | Aztec | 3.2% | $0.78 |
 Tec-9 | Flash Out | 11% | $0.66 |
 Glock-18 | Sacrifice | 11% | $0.54 |
 FAMAS | Decommissioned | 11% | $0.43 |
 Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 | 11% | $0.39 |
 MAG-7 | Popdog | 11% | $0.38 |
 MAC-10 | Classic Crate | 11% | $0.35 |
 SCAR-20 | Assault | 11% | $0.35 |
The calculation uses current market prices and published odds. It is a statistical estimate; an individual opening can differ.
Ranked 34 of 42 CS2 cases by payout
Cases with a similar payout
Questions
Why is the CS20 Case payout below 100%?
The case and key cost $3.27, and almost everything that drops is a cheap skin: 79.92% for the lowest tier, 0.26% for a knife or gloves. Multiply the odds by market prices and you get 41% — that much of every 100 comes back on average.
Where do the prices come from?
The best market offers at the time of the calculation: Skinport, CSFloat, Market.CSGO, DMarket, Waxpeer and White.Market. That is what a drop actually sells for, not a display price.
What does “openings until zero” mean?
The model sells each drop and opens again while the balance covers the next case. For CS20 Case, the median balance falls below the opening price after about 40 openings attempts.
What if I get lucky?
Over 30 openings the chance to pull ★ Classic Knife | Fade is 0.6%, and the chance to double the budget is 1.4%.