CS2 Classified → Covert trade-up — expected value

Classified → Covert

Best trade-ups at live prices

How to choose and build a contract →
Sets evaluated 36,825
With positive expectancy 24
Best expected profit $11.98
Updated 21 minutes ago

Compare input cost and profit chance → open a card in the builder → check live listings.

Selling fee
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Regular contracts

20
AUG | Momentum ×10

10× AUG | Momentum

The Prisma Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

Buying blind +$11.98
Input cost
$124.30
ROI
+9.6%
Chance of profit
47.5%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×10

10× UMP-45 | Primal Saber

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$9.80
Input cost
$156.30
ROI
+6.3%
Chance of profit
46.6%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× Sawed-Off | Devourer

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$8.54
Input cost
$158.47
ROI
+5.4%
Chance of profit
47.2%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× P90 | Deathgaze

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$8.04
Input cost
$159.22
ROI
+5.0%
Chance of profit
47.9%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× Zeus x27 | Olympus

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$7.90
Input cost
$147.72
ROI
+5.3%
Chance of profit
40.9%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× P250 | Visions

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$7.73
Input cost
$147.97
ROI
+5.2%
Chance of profit
41.3%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×8

8× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 2× Sawed-Off | Devourer

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$7.25
Input cost
$160.64
ROI
+4.5%
Chance of profit
47.7%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$7.10
Input cost
$153.96
ROI
+4.6%
Chance of profit
43.1%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× AWP | Duality

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$7.04
Input cost
$150.50
ROI
+4.7%
Chance of profit
42.2%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× AUG | Stymphalian

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$6.98
Input cost
$147.92
ROI
+4.7%
Chance of profit
40.3%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$6.60
Input cost
$163.24
ROI
+4.0%
Chance of profit
47.9%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× PP-Bizon | High Roller

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$6.03
Input cost
$160.67
ROI
+3.8%
Chance of profit
47.9%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×8

8× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 2× Zeus x27 | Olympus

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$5.99
Input cost
$139.14
ROI
+4.3%
Chance of profit
35.3%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×7

7× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 3× Sawed-Off | Devourer

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$5.95
Input cost
$162.81
ROI
+3.7%
Chance of profit
48.1%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×8

8× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 2× P90 | Deathgaze

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$5.89
Input cost
$162.14
ROI
+3.6%
Chance of profit
48.8%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×8

8× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 2× P250 | Visions

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$5.75
Input cost
$139.64
ROI
+4.1%
Chance of profit
36.0%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×9

9× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 1× MAG-7 | Justice

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$5.35
Input cost
$157.78
ROI
+3.4%
Chance of profit
43.1%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×6

6× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 4× Sawed-Off | Devourer

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$4.63
Input cost
$164.98
ROI
+2.8%
Chance of profit
48.5%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×8

8× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 2× AWP | Duality

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$4.23
Input cost
$144.70
ROI
+2.9%
Chance of profit
37.7%
UMP-45 | Primal Saber ×7

7× UMP-45 | Primal Saber + 3× Zeus x27 | Olympus

The Chroma 3 Collection · FN · Factory New

Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$4.12
Input cost
$130.56
ROI
+3.2%
Chance of profit
29.8%

StatTrak™

20
P250 | Visions ×10

10× P250 | Visions

The Recoil Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™
Buying blind +$3.61
Input cost
$120.00
ROI
+3.0%
Chance of profit
49.1%
P250 | Visions ×9

9× P250 | Visions + 1× Zeus x27 | Olympus

The Recoil Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™
Buying blind +$2.38
Input cost
$123.90
ROI
+1.9%
Chance of profit
49.1%
P250 | Visions ×9

9× P250 | Visions + 1× XM1014 | Entombed

The Recoil Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™
Buying blind +$1.87
Input cost
$116.79
ROI
+1.6%
Chance of profit
47.8%
P250 | Visions ×8

8× P250 | Visions + 2× Zeus x27 | Olympus

The Recoil Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™
Buying blind +$1.06
Input cost
$127.80
ROI
+0.8%
Chance of profit
49.1%
P250 | Asiimov ×8

8× P250 | Asiimov + 2× P250 | Epicenter

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.04
Input cost
$92.84
ROI
−0.0%
Chance of profit
39.3%
P250 | Asiimov ×9

9× P250 | Asiimov + 1× P250 | Epicenter

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.05
Input cost
$97.47
ROI
−0.0%
Chance of profit
44.4%
P250 | Visions ×9

9× P250 | Visions + 1× UMP-45 | Primal Saber

The Recoil Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.11
Input cost
$128.83
ROI
−0.1%
Chance of profit
48.1%
P250 | Asiimov ×7

7× P250 | Asiimov + 3× P250 | Epicenter

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.13
Input cost
$88.21
ROI
−0.2%
Chance of profit
69.3%
P250 | Asiimov ×10

10× P250 | Asiimov

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.16
Input cost
$102.10
ROI
−0.2%
Chance of profit
38.8%
P250 | Asiimov ×6

6× P250 | Asiimov + 4× P250 | Epicenter

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.30
Input cost
$83.58
ROI
−0.4%
Chance of profit
59.3%
P250 | Asiimov ×9

9× P250 | Asiimov + 1× FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.35
Input cost
$97.13
ROI
−0.4%
Chance of profit
44.5%
P250 | Visions ×7

7× P250 | Visions + 3× Zeus x27 | Olympus

The Recoil Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.36
Input cost
$131.70
ROI
−0.3%
Chance of profit
49.1%
P250 | Asiimov ×8

8× P250 | Asiimov + 2× FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.56
Input cost
$92.16
ROI
−0.6%
Chance of profit
79.5%
P250 | Asiimov ×9

9× P250 | Asiimov + 1× Sawed-Off | Devourer

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.60
Input cost
$97.96
ROI
−0.6%
Chance of profit
44.4%
P250 | Visions ×8

8× P250 | Visions + 2× XM1014 | Entombed

The Recoil Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.76
Input cost
$113.58
ROI
−0.7%
Chance of profit
45.7%
P250 | Asiimov ×7

7× P250 | Asiimov + 3× FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.79
Input cost
$87.19
ROI
−0.9%
Chance of profit
69.5%
P250 | Visions ×9

9× P250 | Visions + 1× AUG | Death by Puppy

The Recoil Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.79
Input cost
$121.00
ROI
−0.7%
Chance of profit
45.7%
P250 | Asiimov ×9

9× P250 | Asiimov + 1× P2000 | Wicked Sick

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.85
Input cost
$94.48
ROI
−0.9%
Chance of profit
44.5%
P250 | Asiimov ×8

8× P250 | Asiimov + 2× Sawed-Off | Devourer

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$1.11
Input cost
$93.82
ROI
−1.2%
Chance of profit
39.3%
P250 | Asiimov ×9

9× P250 | Asiimov + 1× P250 | Kintsugi

The Chroma 3 Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$1.11
Input cost
$95.98
ROI
−1.2%
Chance of profit
44.5%

Collections in this transition

64
CollectionInputsOutcomesCheapest input
The Revolution Collection32$24.50
The Kilowatt Collection32$24.60
The Snakebite Collection32$28.00
The Recoil Collection32$28.50
The Fracture Collection32$28.70
The Genesis Collection32$28.90
The Clutch Collection32$29.00
The Gallery Collection32$31.10
The CS20 Collection32$32.90
The Falchion Collection32$33.60
The Dead Hand Collection32$33.80
The Fever Collection32$35.70
The Danger Zone Collection32$35.80
The Horizon Collection32$41.30
The Prisma 2 Collection32$45.90
The Prisma Collection32$47.00
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection32$51.80
The Shadow Collection32$55.90
The Shattered Web Collection32$59.00
The Train 2025 Collection21$62.40
The Revolver Case Collection32$71.00
The Overpass 2024 Collection21$71.30
The Vanguard Collection32$78.50
The Phoenix Collection32$78.60
The eSports 2014 Summer Collection42$83.80
The Spectrum 2 Collection32$90.30
The Wildfire Collection32$91.40
The Winter Offensive Collection32$96.10
The Spectrum Collection32$102.40
The Gamma 2 Collection32$103.30
The Chroma Collection32$104.70
The Chroma 2 Collection32$105.80
The Chroma 3 Collection32$105.90
The Gamma Collection32$106.90
The Arabesque Collection22$123.70
The Operation Riptide Collection32$141.50
The Arms Deal 3 Collection21$143.70
The Spy Tech Collection22$155.40
The Operation Broken Fang Collection32$164.90
The Breakout Collection32$169.00
The Sport & Field Collection21$191.00
The Huntsman Collection42$195.70
The eSports 2013 Winter Collection31$195.70
The Graphic Design Collection21$221.70
The Glove Collection32$252.90
The 2021 Train Collection32$277.10
The Anubis Collection21$300.10
The eSports 2013 Collection21$415.70
The Operation Hydra Collection32$417.80
The Arms Deal 2 Collection21$429.00
The Bravo Collection32$830.00
The Ancient Collection21$959.70
The 2021 Mirage Collection21$1 190.00
The 2021 Vertigo Collection21$1 299.90
The Control Collection21$1 517.90
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection21$1 550.00
The Arms Deal Collection21$1 576.50
The Havoc Collection21$1 580.00
The Canals Collection11$4 750.00
The Rising Sun Collection11$8 010.40
The Gods and Monsters Collection11$10 245.70
The St. Marc Collection11$19 890.00
The Norse Collection11$21 748.70
The Cobblestone Collection11$23 834.70

How we calculate this

The input price is the best buy price across five markets for that exact wear; for regular contracts we take whichever of the normal and Souvenir version is cheaper and actually has enough listings. The outcome price is the same best price for the projected output wear, minus the selling fee. An outcome only counts if at least two independent markets confirm its price. Outcomes without a live price are counted as zero, so the estimate is conservative and their share is shown on its own line. Phase knives trade under one phaseless market hash whose price is the cheapest phase, so gold-tier expected values are understated.

A trade-up contract is an in-game CS2 mechanic by Valve. This site does not trade, does not accept items and is not affiliated with Valve Corporation. Prices come from external markets, refresh hourly and may differ from the live ones; buying ten lots at the shown price is not always possible. On top of the selling fee there are deposit and withdrawal fees, and an item bought on a third-party market arrives by trade and cannot be resold on Steam for seven days. Expected value is an average over many repetitions, not a promise about one attempt: for most contracts the chance of getting back less than you spent is above 50%. Informational material, not financial advice.