CS2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec trade-up — expected value

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec

Best trade-ups at live prices

How to choose and build a contract →
Sets evaluated 20,538
With positive expectancy 20
Best expected profit $1.43
Updated 19 minutes ago

Compare input cost and profit chance → open a card in the builder → check live listings.

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Regular contracts

20
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×10

10× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.43
Input cost
$7.70
ROI
+18.5%
Chance of profit
25.0%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× P90 | Verdant Growth

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.29
Input cost
$7.83
ROI
+16.5%
Chance of profit
25.0%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× XM1014 | XoooM

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.28
Input cost
$7.04
ROI
+18.2%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× SSG 08 | Tiger Tear

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.28
Input cost
$7.02
ROI
+18.2%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× P90 | Wash me

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.25
Input cost
$7.02
ROI
+17.8%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× PP-Bizon | Cold Cell

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.25
Input cost
$7.02
ROI
+17.8%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× Negev | Bulkhead

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.24
Input cost
$7.15
ROI
+17.4%
Chance of profit
23.0%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× Nova | Turquoise Pour

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.24
Input cost
$7.05
ROI
+17.6%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× SG 553 | Basket Halftone

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.23
Input cost
$7.04
ROI
+17.5%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× MP9 | Old Roots

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.23
Input cost
$7.99
ROI
+15.4%
Chance of profit
30.0%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× FAMAS | Vendetta

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.23
Input cost
$7.04
ROI
+17.4%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× Nova | Rain Station

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.22
Input cost
$7.06
ROI
+17.2%
Chance of profit
22.4%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× G3SG1 | VariCamo

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.20
Input cost
$7.07
ROI
+17.0%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× PP-Bizon | Night Ops

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.19
Input cost
$7.11
ROI
+16.7%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× M249 | Spectrogram

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.16
Input cost
$7.29
ROI
+16.0%
Chance of profit
22.5%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×8

8× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 2× XM1014 | XoooM

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.15
Input cost
$6.38
ROI
+18.0%
Chance of profit
20.0%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×9

9× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 1× Nova | Candy Apple

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.15
Input cost
$7.12
ROI
+16.1%
Chance of profit
22.3%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×8

8× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 2× SSG 08 | Tiger Tear

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.13
Input cost
$6.34
ROI
+17.8%
Chance of profit
20.0%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×8

8× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 2× P90 | Wash me

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.07
Input cost
$6.34
ROI
+16.9%
Chance of profit
20.0%
CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm ×8

8× CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm + 2× PP-Bizon | Cold Cell

The 2021 Mirage Collection · FN · Factory New

Souvenir
Buying blind +$1.06
Input cost
$6.34
ROI
+16.7%
Chance of profit
19.9%

StatTrak™

0

No contract for this transition passes the liquidity thresholds right now. Check back in an hour — prices refresh.

Collections in this transition

46

How we calculate this

The input price is the best buy price across five markets for that exact wear; for regular contracts we take whichever of the normal and Souvenir version is cheaper and actually has enough listings. The outcome price is the same best price for the projected output wear, minus the selling fee. An outcome only counts if at least two independent markets confirm its price. Outcomes without a live price are counted as zero, so the estimate is conservative and their share is shown on its own line. Phase knives trade under one phaseless market hash whose price is the cheapest phase, so gold-tier expected values are understated.

A trade-up contract is an in-game CS2 mechanic by Valve. This site does not trade, does not accept items and is not affiliated with Valve Corporation. Prices come from external markets, refresh hourly and may differ from the live ones; buying ten lots at the shown price is not always possible. On top of the selling fee there are deposit and withdrawal fees, and an item bought on a third-party market arrives by trade and cannot be resold on Steam for seven days. Expected value is an average over many repetitions, not a promise about one attempt: for most contracts the chance of getting back less than you spent is above 50%. Informational material, not financial advice.