CS2 Mil-Spec → Restricted trade-up — expected value — CS2Collections.net

Mil-Spec → Restricted

Best trade-ups at live prices

How to choose and build a contract →
Sets evaluated 41,627
With positive expectancy 21
Best expected profit $1.27
Updated 36 minutes ago

Compare input cost and profit chance → open a card in the builder → check live listings.

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Regular contracts

20
MP9 | Music Box ×10

10× MP9 | Music Box

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.27
Input cost
$18.90
ROI
+6.7%
Chance of profit
33.3%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.14
Input cost
$17.14
ROI
+6.6%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× MP5-SD | Gold Leaf

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.13
Input cost
$17.07
ROI
+6.6%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.13
Input cost
$17.13
ROI
+6.6%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.13
Input cost
$17.15
ROI
+6.6%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× Sawed-Off | Spirit Board

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.13
Input cost
$17.04
ROI
+6.6%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× PP-Bizon | RMX

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.12
Input cost
$17.04
ROI
+6.6%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× P250 | Small Game

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.12
Input cost
$17.22
ROI
+6.5%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.11
Input cost
$17.15
ROI
+6.5%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× FAMAS | 2A2F

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.11
Input cost
$17.13
ROI
+6.5%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× MAG-7 | Insomnia

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.11
Input cost
$17.04
ROI
+6.5%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× P90 | Facility Negative

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.10
Input cost
$17.17
ROI
+6.4%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× P250 | Red Tide

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.10
Input cost
$17.12
ROI
+6.4%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× MAG-7 | MAGnitude

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.10
Input cost
$17.06
ROI
+6.4%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× MAG-7 | Resupply

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.09
Input cost
$17.06
ROI
+6.4%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× M4A4 | Poly Mag

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.09
Input cost
$17.06
ROI
+6.4%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× MAC-10 | Light Box

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.09
Input cost
$17.06
ROI
+6.4%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× P90 | Freight

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.09
Input cost
$17.06
ROI
+6.4%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× Sawed-Off | Yorick

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.08
Input cost
$17.13
ROI
+6.3%
Chance of profit
60.0%
MP9 | Music Box ×9

9× MP9 | Music Box + 1× MP5-SD | Statics

The 2021 Mirage Collection · BS · Battle-Scarred

Souvenir Thin liquidity
Buying blind +$1.07
Input cost
$17.11
ROI
+6.3%
Chance of profit
60.0%

StatTrak™

20
Nova | Dark Sigil ×6

6× Nova | Dark Sigil + 4× Sawed-Off | Fusion

The Kilowatt Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™
Buying blind +$0.05
Input cost
$5.56
ROI
+0.9%
Chance of profit
42.4%
Nova | Dark Sigil ×7

7× Nova | Dark Sigil + 3× SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer

The Kilowatt Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.01
Input cost
$5.44
ROI
−0.3%
Chance of profit
33.4%
Nova | Dark Sigil ×5

5× Nova | Dark Sigil + 5× Sawed-Off | Fusion

The Kilowatt Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.06
Input cost
$6.25
ROI
−0.9%
Chance of profit
29.6%
Nova | Dark Sigil ×6

6× Nova | Dark Sigil + 4× SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer

The Kilowatt Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.13
Input cost
$6.32
ROI
−2.0%
Chance of profit
31.8%
UMP-45 | Fragment ×8

8× UMP-45 | Fragment + 2× PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone

The Dead Hand Collection · MW · Minimal Wear

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.14
Input cost
$5.02
ROI
−2.8%
Chance of profit
33.9%
M249 | Bock Blocks ×5

5× M249 | Bock Blocks + 5× Nova | Dark Sigil

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.16
Input cost
$6.35
ROI
−2.5%
Chance of profit
29.6%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×6

6× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 4× Nova | Dark Sigil

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.20
Input cost
$6.94
ROI
−2.9%
Chance of profit
23.8%
Nova | Dark Sigil ×5

5× Nova | Dark Sigil + 5× SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer

The Kilowatt Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.24
Input cost
$7.20
ROI
−3.3%
Chance of profit
39.8%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×7

7× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 3× MAC-10 | Rangeen

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.26
Input cost
$10.03
ROI
−2.6%
Chance of profit
46.9%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×8

8× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 2× MAC-10 | Rangeen

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.28
Input cost
$9.92
ROI
−2.8%
Chance of profit
46.4%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×8

8× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 2× M249 | Spectre

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.28
Input cost
$9.02
ROI
−3.1%
Chance of profit
43.3%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×7

7× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 3× M249 | Spectre

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.31
Input cost
$8.68
ROI
−3.6%
Chance of profit
42.1%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×8

8× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 2× UMP-45 | Oscillator

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.31
Input cost
$9.42
ROI
−3.3%
Chance of profit
35.5%
M249 | Bock Blocks ×6

6× M249 | Bock Blocks + 4× Nova | Dark Sigil

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.32
Input cost
$7.06
ROI
−4.5%
Chance of profit
23.8%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×7

7× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 3× Nova | Dark Sigil

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.36
Input cost
$7.63
ROI
−4.8%
Chance of profit
27.9%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×7

7× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 3× UMP-45 | Oscillator

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.39
Input cost
$9.28
ROI
−4.2%
Chance of profit
31.3%
M249 | Bock Blocks ×7

7× M249 | Bock Blocks + 3× MAC-10 | Rangeen

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.40
Input cost
$10.17
ROI
−4.0%
Chance of profit
46.9%
Sawed-Off | Fusion ×8

8× Sawed-Off | Fusion + 2× SCAR-20 | Outbreak

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.42
Input cost
$9.76
ROI
−4.3%
Chance of profit
38.1%
M249 | Bock Blocks ×8

8× M249 | Bock Blocks + 2× MAC-10 | Rangeen

The Dead Hand Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.44
Input cost
$10.08
ROI
−4.3%
Chance of profit
46.4%

Collections in this transition

88
CollectionInputsOutcomesCheapest input
The Kilowatt Collection75$0.20
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection75$0.30
The Recoil Collection75$0.30
The Revolution Collection75$0.30
The Dead Hand Collection75$0.30
The Fracture Collection75$0.50
The Fever Collection75$0.50
The Genesis Collection75$0.50
The Boreal Collection52$0.50
The Dust 2 Collection31$0.60
The Clutch Collection75$0.70
The 2018 Nuke Collection43$0.80
The Safehouse Collection31$0.90
The Danger Zone Collection75$1.00
The Prisma 2 Collection75$1.00
The Gallery Collection75$1.00
The Italy Collection31$1.00
The Lake Collection31$1.00
The Radiant Collection63$1.10
The Revolver Case Collection66$1.20
The Spectrum 2 Collection75$1.20
The Train 2025 Collection43$1.20
The Achroma Collection42$1.20
The Ascent Collection52$1.20
The Train Collection21$1.20
The Arabesque Collection43$1.30
The Overpass 2024 Collection43$1.30
The Harlequin Collection42$1.30
The Gamma 2 Collection75$1.40
The Prisma Collection75$1.50
The Snakebite Collection75$1.50
The Shadow Collection74$1.50
The Spectrum Collection75$1.70
The Chroma 2 Collection64$1.70
The Spy Tech Collection43$1.80
The CS20 Collection75$1.90
The Falchion Collection65$2.00
The Gamma Collection75$2.00
The Horizon Collection75$2.00
The Bank Collection31$2.00
The Sport & Field Collection43$2.10
The Chroma 3 Collection75$2.20
The Phoenix Collection44$2.50
The Breakout Collection54$2.50
The Chroma Collection54$3.20
The Wildfire Collection65$3.40
The Glove Collection75$3.40
The Operation Broken Fang Collection75$3.90
The 2018 Inferno Collection43$4.40
The Operation Riptide Collection75$5.00
The Shattered Web Collection75$5.20
The Vanguard Collection54$5.20
The Anubis Collection43$7.10
The Huntsman Collection95$7.90
The Graphic Design Collection43$8.00
The Winter Offensive Collection44$11.00
The 2021 Train Collection75$13.10
The eSports 2014 Summer Collection65$15.60
The eSports 2013 Winter Collection62$15.90
The Arms Deal 2 Collection54$19.70
The eSports 2013 Collection33$20.80
The 2021 Mirage Collection43$22.10
The Operation Hydra Collection75$26.80
The Arms Deal 3 Collection54$30.00
The Ancient Collection43$32.40
The Vertigo Collection21$32.60
The Bravo Collection64$35.00
The 2021 Vertigo Collection43$40.30
The Overpass Collection32$48.50
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection43$58.80
The Cache Collection52$82.50
The Arms Deal Collection33$96.80
The Control Collection43$108.80
The Havoc Collection43$128.00
The Alpha Collection32$133.10
The Mirage Collection31$138.40
The Militia Collection51$158.80
The Canals Collection43$182.30
The Nuke Collection12$242.10
The Baggage Collection32$247.70
The Chop Shop Collection52$249.70
The Cobblestone Collection22$418.90
The St. Marc Collection43$420.00
The Norse Collection43$597.50
The Dust Collection33$597.70
The Rising Sun Collection34$702.40
The Gods and Monsters Collection22$765.20
The Assault Collection22$3 214.60

How we calculate this

The input price is the best buy price across five markets for that exact wear; for regular contracts we take whichever of the normal and Souvenir version is cheaper and actually has enough listings. The outcome price is the same best price for the projected output wear, minus the selling fee. An outcome only counts if at least two independent markets confirm its price. Outcomes without a live price are counted as zero, so the estimate is conservative and their share is shown on its own line. Phase knives trade under one phaseless market hash whose price is the cheapest phase, so gold-tier expected values are understated.

A trade-up contract is an in-game CS2 mechanic by Valve. This site does not trade, does not accept items and is not affiliated with Valve Corporation. Prices come from external markets, refresh hourly and may differ from the live ones; buying ten lots at the shown price is not always possible. On top of the selling fee there are deposit and withdrawal fees, and an item bought on a third-party market arrives by trade and cannot be resold on Steam for seven days. Expected value is an average over many repetitions, not a promise about one attempt: for most contracts the chance of getting back less than you spent is above 50%. Informational material, not financial advice.