CS2 Restricted → Classified trade-up — expected value

Restricted → Classified

Best trade-ups at live prices

How to choose and build a contract →
Sets evaluated 40,643
With positive expectancy 32
Best expected profit $2.73
Updated 37 minutes ago

Compare input cost and profit chance → open a card in the builder → check live listings.

Selling fee
Sort by
Budget

Regular contracts

20

StatTrak™

20
MAC-10 | Last Dive ×5

5× MAC-10 | Last Dive + 5× M249 | Downtown

The Spectrum Collection · FN · Factory New

StatTrak™ Thin liquidity Negative right now
Buying blind −$0.45
Input cost
$24.95
ROI
−1.8%
Chance of profit
64.5%

Collections in this transition

77
CollectionInputsOutcomesCheapest input
The Revolution Collection53$2.80
The Kilowatt Collection53$2.90
The Fracture Collection53$3.00
The Snakebite Collection53$3.00
The Recoil Collection53$3.00
The Fever Collection53$3.00
The Clutch Collection53$3.20
The Genesis Collection53$3.30
The Danger Zone Collection53$4.00
The CS20 Collection53$4.00
The Ascent Collection21$4.00
The Dust 2 Collection11$4.30
The Gallery Collection53$4.50
The Dead Hand Collection53$4.50
The Prisma Collection53$4.60
The Prisma 2 Collection53$4.80
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection53$4.80
The Boreal Collection21$5.20
The Falchion Collection53$5.60
The Horizon Collection53$5.70
The 2018 Inferno Collection32$6.60
The Harlequin Collection21$6.90
The Radiant Collection31$7.80
The Achroma Collection21$7.90
The Revolver Case Collection63$9.00
The Spectrum 2 Collection53$9.20
The Shadow Collection43$9.60
The Spectrum Collection53$9.80
The Gamma 2 Collection53$10.60
The Vanguard Collection43$10.70
The Gamma Collection53$10.80
The 2018 Nuke Collection32$11.00
The Chroma 3 Collection53$11.10
The Chroma 2 Collection43$11.20
The Train 2025 Collection32$11.40
The Overpass 2024 Collection32$12.60
The Shattered Web Collection53$13.50
The Phoenix Collection43$14.40
The Chroma Collection43$15.20
The Wildfire Collection53$15.40
The Arabesque Collection32$16.50
The Bank Collection11$16.70
The Operation Riptide Collection53$17.40
The Spy Tech Collection32$17.60
The Operation Broken Fang Collection53$18.70
The Breakout Collection43$18.80
The eSports 2014 Summer Collection54$19.30
The Sport & Field Collection32$20.50
The Glove Collection53$28.30
The Huntsman Collection54$37.50
The Anubis Collection32$41.10
The Winter Offensive Collection43$41.20
The 2021 Train Collection53$47.70
The Graphic Design Collection32$49.80
The Arms Deal 3 Collection42$57.10
The eSports 2013 Winter Collection23$68.20
The Arms Deal 2 Collection42$84.90
The Operation Hydra Collection53$117.70
The eSports 2013 Collection32$125.90
The Bravo Collection43$155.00
The Ancient Collection32$175.20
The 2021 Mirage Collection32$179.80
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection32$210.20
The Overpass Collection21$214.90
The 2021 Vertigo Collection32$244.10
The Militia Collection11$340.00
The Havoc Collection32$475.00
The Arms Deal Collection32$572.30
The Control Collection32$666.20
The Baggage Collection21$680.40
The Canals Collection31$832.90
The Chop Shop Collection22$1 763.00
The Gods and Monsters Collection21$2 391.00
The St. Marc Collection31$2 769.60
The Cobblestone Collection21$2 882.00
The Norse Collection31$2 911.70
The Rising Sun Collection41$4 300.00

How we calculate this

The input price is the best buy price across five markets for that exact wear; for regular contracts we take whichever of the normal and Souvenir version is cheaper and actually has enough listings. The outcome price is the same best price for the projected output wear, minus the selling fee. An outcome only counts if at least two independent markets confirm its price. Outcomes without a live price are counted as zero, so the estimate is conservative and their share is shown on its own line. Phase knives trade under one phaseless market hash whose price is the cheapest phase, so gold-tier expected values are understated.

A trade-up contract is an in-game CS2 mechanic by Valve. This site does not trade, does not accept items and is not affiliated with Valve Corporation. Prices come from external markets, refresh hourly and may differ from the live ones; buying ten lots at the shown price is not always possible. On top of the selling fee there are deposit and withdrawal fees, and an item bought on a third-party market arrives by trade and cannot be resold on Steam for seven days. Expected value is an average over many repetitions, not a promise about one attempt: for most contracts the chance of getting back less than you spent is above 50%. Informational material, not financial advice.